ATP tennis predict — Alexandre Muller vs Marco Cecchinato

Challenger Clay San Marino challenger · R16

Predicted probability

Alexandre Muller

France

38.45%

Marco Cecchinato

Italy

61.55%

Average Odds

1.79 / 1.94

Market probability

52.01% / 47.99%

Why This Prediction?

Marco Cecchinato is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1738 vs 1616), a higher Elo rating (1728 vs 1642) and more wins on clay courts (132 vs 40).

Player Comparison

1641.9 Elo 1728.2

1616.1 Elo (surface) 1738.5

174 Wins (Challenger) 307

115 Wins (surface) 304

9 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.050 Dominance ratio 0.899

132 Rank 174

29.5 Age 33.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alexandre Muller

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Marco Cecchinato

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 14W–3L · 82.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

31 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexandre Muller Marco Cecchinato

1st Serve In %

66.1%

63.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.4%

68.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.8%

56.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.3%

30.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.2%

51.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.49

0.24

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.5%

61.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.1%

65.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.1%

53.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.5%

33.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.2%

53.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.47

0.19

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexandre Muller Marco Cecchinato

Break Points Saved %

67.9%

65.4%

Break Points Converted %

30.0%

37.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.5%

65.3%

Break Points Converted %

39.3%

48.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alexandre Muller 0 – 0 Marco Cecchinato

Clay San Marino challenger · 2026-07-29

R16

Alexandre Muller #132

Marco Cecchinato #174

4-6 6-2 7-5

3 Aces 3

5 Double Faults 2

102 Service Points 90

54 First Serve In 66

40 First Serve Won 45

27 Second Serve Won 11

8 Break Points Saved 4

10 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.8 Average Odds 1.9

Alexandre Muller vs Marco Cecchinato — Prediction