ATP tennis predict — Alexandre Muller vs Luka Pavlovic

ATP Hard Chengdu · qualification - round of 16 07:00

Predicted probability

Alexandre Muller

France

65.30%

Luka Pavlovic

France

34.70%

Average Odds

1.63 / 2.20

Market probability

57.44% / 42.56%

Why This Prediction?

Alexandre Muller is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1760 vs 1659), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1731 vs 1639) and a stronger return game (41.3% vs 32.0% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1759.8 Elo 1659.1

1731.1 Elo (surface) 1639.0

91 Wins 6

48 Wins (surface) 3

5 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.108 Dominance ratio 0.802

135 Rank 201

29.6 Age 26.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alexandre Muller

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Luka Pavlovic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–4L · 55.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexandre Muller Luka Pavlovic

1st Serve In %

66.1%

53.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.4%

74.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.8%

45.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.3%

24.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.2%

43.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.49

0.84

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.5%

63.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.1%

71.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.1%

52.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.5%

26.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.2%

40.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.47

0.67

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexandre Muller Luka Pavlovic

Break Points Saved %

67.9%

63.6%

Break Points Converted %

30.0%

29.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.5%

62.1%

Break Points Converted %

39.3%

31.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alexandre Muller 0 – 0 Luka Pavlovic

Hard Chengdu · 2026-09-22

qualification - round of 16

Alexandre Muller #135

Luka Pavlovic #201

6-4 6-7 6-3

8 Aces 14

4 Double Faults 4

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

59 First Serve Won 41

13 Second Serve Won 25

3 Break Points Saved 9

3 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.2

Alexandre Muller vs Luka Pavlovic — Prediction