ATP tennis predict — Alexandre Muller vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

ATP Hard Chengdu · QF 08:30

Predicted probability

Alexandre Muller

France

24.94%

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Spain

75.06%

Average Odds

3.48 / 1.30

Market probability

27.20% / 72.80%

Why This Prediction?

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2039 vs 1789), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1957 vs 1775) and more wins on hard courts (113 vs 52).

Player Comparison

1789.4 Elo 2038.5

1775.3 Elo (surface) 1956.7

95 Wins 207

52 Wins (surface) 113

6 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.108 Dominance ratio 0.927

135 Rank 29

29.6 Age 27.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alexandre Muller

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexandre Muller Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

1st Serve In %

65.1%

65.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.4%

72.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.7%

49.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

38.3%

28.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.4%

45.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.62

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.5%

66.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.1%

68.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.1%

51.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.5%

39.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.2%

56.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.47

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexandre Muller Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Break Points Saved %

63.8%

59.7%

Break Points Converted %

29.6%

31.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.5%

60.7%

Break Points Converted %

39.3%

50.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alexandre Muller and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina have never played each other.

Alexandre Muller vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina — Prediction