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Alexandr Binda vs S Mert Ozdemir — Prediction

Challenger Hard Istanbul challenger · qualification - 1. round

Predicted probability

Alexandr Binda

Italy

85.89%

S Mert Ozdemir

Turkey

14.11%

Average Odds

1.05  /  9.34

Market probability

89.89%  /  10.11%

Why This Prediction?

Alexandr Binda is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1411 vs 1253), more career match wins (22 vs 1) and fewer double faults per game (0.22 vs 0.33).

Player Comparison

1411.4 Elo 1253.5
1357.4 Elo (surface) 1257.8
22 Wins (Challenger) 1
19 Wins (surface) 1
7 Last 15 form 1
0 Head-to-head wins 0
0.972 Dominance ratio 0.734
479 Rank 1784
24.9 Age 26.6
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alexandr Binda

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-07-05.

S Mert Ozdemir

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

2 matches with market odds since 2026-07-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexandr Binda S Mert Ozdemir

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

67.9%
56.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.8%
58.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.0%
42.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.7%
28.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.4%
49.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.65
0.22

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28
0.63

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexandr Binda S Mert Ozdemir

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

62.5%
50.0%

Break Points Converted %

40.8%
41.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alexandr Binda 00 S Mert Ozdemir

Hard Istanbul challenger · 2026-08-02

qualification - 1. round

Alexandr Binda #479

S Mert Ozdemir #1784

6-3 6-4
4 Aces 3
2 Double Faults 3
60 Service Points 54
39 First Serve In 28
26 First Serve Won 14
9 Second Serve Won 12
6 Break Points Saved 8
9 Break Points Faced 13
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
1.1 Average Odds 9.3

Alexandr Binda — Last 10

L W W W W L W W L L

S Mert Ozdemir — Last 10

L L L L L W L L L L