ATP tennis predict — Alexandr Binda vs Mert Naci Turker

Challenger Hard Istanbul challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Alexandr Binda

Italy

54.70%

Mert Naci Turker

Turkey

45.30%

Average Odds

1.44 / 2.63

Market probability

64.62% / 35.38%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1444.3 Elo 1468.9

1399.4 Elo (surface) 1477.3

24 Wins (Challenger) 4

21 Wins (surface) 4

7 Last 15 form 4

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.094 Dominance ratio 0.844

571 Rank 767

24.9 Age 28.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alexandr Binda

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-07-05.

Mert Naci Turker

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

5 matches with market odds since 2026-07-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexandr Binda Mert Naci Turker

1st Serve In %

—

60.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

58.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

46.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

52.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

54.3%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.61

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

67.9%

57.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.8%

68.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.0%

42.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.7%

29.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.4%

54.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.65

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.48

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexandr Binda Mert Naci Turker

Break Points Saved %

—

55.6%

Break Points Converted %

—

60.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.5%

59.5%

Break Points Converted %

40.8%

36.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alexandr Binda 0 – 0 Mert Naci Turker

Hard Istanbul challenger · 2026-08-04

1. round

Alexandr Binda #571

Mert Naci Turker #767

7-6 6-2

7 Aces 5

1 Double Faults 2

70 Service Points 97

49 First Serve In 65

37 First Serve Won 42

13 Second Serve Won 15

0 Break Points Saved 9

0 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.6

Alexandr Binda vs Mert Naci Turker — Prediction