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Alexandr Binda vs Kosuke Ogura — Prediction

Challenger Hard Guangzhou 2 challenger · qualification - round of 16 10:00

Predicted probability

Alexandr Binda

Italy

71.75%

Kosuke Ogura

Japan

28.25%

Average Odds

1.35  /  2.93

Market probability

68.46%  /  31.54%

Why This Prediction?

Alexandr Binda is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1517 vs 1400), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1503 vs 1431) and a stronger return game (43.2% vs 38.6% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1516.7 Elo 1399.8
1503.3 Elo (surface) 1431.0
28 Wins (Challenger) 18
25 Wins (surface) 11
9 Last 15 form 6
0 Head-to-head wins 0
1.186 Dominance ratio 1.063
552 Rank -
25.0 Age 30.6
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alexandr Binda

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-07-05.

Kosuke Ogura

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

2 matches with market odds since 2026-09-13.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexandr Binda Kosuke Ogura

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

67.9%
64.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.8%
67.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.0%
59.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.7%
27.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.4%
53.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.65
0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28
0.24

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexandr Binda Kosuke Ogura

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

62.5%
65.7%

Break Points Converted %

40.8%
45.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alexandr Binda 00 Kosuke Ogura

Hard Guangzhou 2 challenger · 2026-09-14

qualification - round of 16

Alexandr Binda #548

Kosuke Ogura #-

6-4 4-6 6-4
7 Aces 11
3 Double Faults 1
- Service Points -
- First Serve In -
35 First Serve Won 32
27 Second Serve Won 25
3 Break Points Saved 7
6 Break Points Faced 11
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
1.4 Average Odds 2.9

Alexandr Binda — Last 10

L W W W W L W W L L

Kosuke Ogura — Last 10

L W L W L W W L L W