ATP tennis predict — Alexandr Binda vs Kaito Uesugi

Challenger Hard Guangzhou 2 challenger · qualification - 1. round 11:30

Predicted probability

Alexandr Binda

Italy

75.05%

Kaito Uesugi

Japan

24.95%

Average Odds

1.36 / 2.81

Market probability

67.39% / 32.61%

Why This Prediction?

Alexandr Binda is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1500 vs 1398), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1486 vs 1372) and a stronger serve (63.5% vs 60.4% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1499.6 Elo 1398.4

1486.4 Elo (surface) 1372.1

27 Wins (Challenger) 25

24 Wins (surface) 24

8 Last 15 form 4

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.186 Dominance ratio 0.952

552 Rank 1394

25.0 Age 31.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alexandr Binda

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-07-05.

Kaito Uesugi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

4 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexandr Binda Kaito Uesugi

1st Serve In %

—

58.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

67.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

40.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

23.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

57.1%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.44

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

67.9%

62.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.8%

65.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.0%

44.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.7%

30.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.4%

49.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.65

0.30

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.39

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexandr Binda Kaito Uesugi

Break Points Saved %

—

42.9%

Break Points Converted %

—

20.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.5%

55.6%

Break Points Converted %

40.8%

34.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alexandr Binda 0 – 0 Kaito Uesugi

Hard Guangzhou 2 challenger · 2026-09-13

qualification - 1. round

Alexandr Binda #552

Kaito Uesugi #1394

7-6 6-3

8 Aces 3

7 Double Faults 4

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

32 First Serve Won 32

13 Second Serve Won 7

1 Break Points Saved 7

5 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.8

Alexandr Binda vs Kaito Uesugi — Prediction