ATP tennis predict — Alexandr Binda vs Fajing Sun

Challenger Hard Guangzhou 2 challenger · R16 09:30

Predicted probability

Alexandr Binda

Italy

44.21%

Fajing Sun

China

55.79%

Average Odds

3.41 / 1.29

Market probability

27.45% / 72.55%

Why This Prediction?

Fajing Sun is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1631 vs 1533), a higher Elo rating (1620 vs 1542) and more wins on hard courts (81 vs 27).

Player Comparison

1542.1 Elo 1620.1

1532.7 Elo (surface) 1630.9

30 Wins (Challenger) 82

27 Wins (surface) 81

9 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.186 Dominance ratio 1.079

548 Rank 324

25.0 Age 30.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alexandr Binda

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-07-05.

Fajing Sun

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–5L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexandr Binda Fajing Sun

1st Serve In %

—

56.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

60.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

48.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

21.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

43.8%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

67.9%

65.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.8%

67.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.0%

58.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.7%

26.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.4%

48.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.65

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexandr Binda Fajing Sun

Break Points Saved %

—

53.6%

Break Points Converted %

—

32.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.5%

63.5%

Break Points Converted %

40.8%

42.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alexandr Binda 0 – 0 Fajing Sun

Hard Guangzhou 2 challenger · 2026-09-17

R16

Alexandr Binda #548

Fajing Sun #324

4-6 7-6 6-4

12 Aces 6

5 Double Faults 3

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

40 First Serve Won 49

22 Second Serve Won 16

8 Break Points Saved 10

13 Break Points Faced 15

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

3.4 Average Odds 1.3

Alexandr Binda vs Fajing Sun — Prediction