ATP tennis predict — Alexandr Binda vs Aoran Wang

Challenger Hard Guangzhou 2 challenger · 1. round 11:00

Predicted probability

Alexandr Binda

Italy

80.56%

Aoran Wang

China

19.44%

Average Odds

1.35 / 2.99

Market probability

68.89% / 31.11%

Why This Prediction?

Alexandr Binda is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1533 vs 1291), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1523 vs 1283) and a stronger return game (43.2% vs 25.9% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1532.7 Elo 1290.6

1522.9 Elo (surface) 1283.1

29 Wins (Challenger) 11

26 Wins (surface) 11

9 Last 15 form 4

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.186 Dominance ratio 0.709

548 Rank 984

25.0 Age 29.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alexandr Binda

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-07-05.

Aoran Wang

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

3 matches with market odds since 2026-08-30.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexandr Binda Aoran Wang

1st Serve In %

—

53.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

71.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

36.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

21.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

40.0%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.69

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.54

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

67.9%

57.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.8%

74.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.0%

45.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.7%

19.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.4%

37.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.65

1.13

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexandr Binda Aoran Wang

Break Points Saved %

—

51.6%

Break Points Converted %

—

30.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.5%

58.6%

Break Points Converted %

40.8%

38.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alexandr Binda 1 – 0 Aoran Wang

Hard Guangzhou 2 challenger · 2026-09-15

1. round

Alexandr Binda #548

Aoran Wang #984

6-3 6-4

13 Aces 12

1 Double Faults 4

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

29 First Serve Won 26

12 Second Serve Won 12

0 Break Points Saved 2

0 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 3.0

Hard Guangzhou Huangpu CH · 2025-09-08

Q1

Alexandr Binda #382

Aoran Wang #1090

6-2 6-4

7 Aces 6

2 Double Faults 4

62 Service Points 52

39 First Serve In 26

31 First Serve Won 18

8 Second Serve Won 11

2 Break Points Saved 1

3 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Alexandr Binda vs Aoran Wang — Prediction