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Alexander Zverev vs Tommy Paul — Prediction

ATP Hard Cincinnati · R16 19:00

Predicted probability

Alexander Zverev

Germany

73.97%

Tommy Paul

USA

26.03%

Average Odds

1.34  /  3.24

Market probability

70.74%  /  29.26%

Why This Prediction?

Alexander Zverev is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2024 vs 1904), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1965 vs 1770) and a stronger serve (66.4% vs 59.8% of service points won).

Player Comparison

2023.5 Elo 1903.5
1964.5 Elo (surface) 1770.3
589 Wins 284
343 Wins (surface) 191
12 Last 15 form 10
1 Head-to-head wins 2
0.828 Dominance ratio 0.846
3 Rank 24
29.3 Age 29.3
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alexander Zverev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 20W–1L · 95.2%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Tommy Paul

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–1L · 88.9%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Zverev Tommy Paul

1st Serve In %

65.1%
59.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

78.6%
70.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.9%
51.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%
26.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.9%
45.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.73
0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29
0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.8%
55.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.6%
74.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.8%
53.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.8%
32.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.2%
49.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.50
0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27
0.21

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Zverev Tommy Paul

Break Points Saved %

63.2%
55.1%

Break Points Converted %

34.2%
33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.1%
62.8%

Break Points Converted %

49.4%
45.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alexander Zverev 1 – 2 Tommy Paul

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-19

R16

Tommy Paul #24

Alexander Zverev #3

4-6 7-6 6-4
14 Aces 9
9 Double Faults 1
102 Service Points 96
70 First Serve In 63
52 First Serve Won 47
17 Second Serve Won 20
1 Break Points Saved 3
3 Break Points Faced 5
23 Winners 34
33 Unforced Errors 46
3.2 Average Odds 1.3
Hard Australian Open · 2025-01-13

QF

Alexander Zverev #2

Tommy Paul #11

7-6(1) 7-6(0) 2-6 6-1
7 Aces 9
5 Double Faults 2
135 Service Points 118
93 First Serve In 76
67 First Serve Won 51
22 Second Serve Won 21
7 Break Points Saved 3
11 Break Points Faced 7
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Indian Wells Masters · 2022-03-07

R64

Tommy Paul #39

Alexander Zverev #3

6-2 4-6 7-6(2)
1 Aces 6
3 Double Faults 6
98 Service Points 90
62 First Serve In 64
44 First Serve Won 50
24 Second Serve Won 9
3 Break Points Saved 4
5 Break Points Faced 7
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Acapulco · 2020-02-24

R16

Tommy Paul #66

Alexander Zverev #7

6-3 6-4
5 Aces 3
0 Double Faults 9
69 Service Points 59
45 First Serve In 32
34 First Serve Won 27
13 Second Serve Won 11
4 Break Points Saved 6
4 Break Points Faced 8
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Alexander Zverev — Last 10

W W W W W W W L W W

Tommy Paul — Last 10

L W W W L W W W L W