ATP tennis predict
← Back to Predictions

Alexander Zverev vs Novak Djokovic — Prediction

ATP Hard Beijing · QF 13:00

Predicted probability

Alexander Zverev

Germany

63.88%

Novak Djokovic

Serbia

36.12%

Average Odds

1.37  /  3.09

Market probability

69.28%  /  30.72%

Why This Prediction?

Alexander Zverev is the favorite because he has better recent form (12 wins in his last 15 matches vs 10) and a stronger serve (68.5% vs 64.9% of service points won).

Player Comparison

2253.7 Elo 2275.7
2163.4 Elo (surface) 2229.5
599 Wins 1204
353 Wins (surface) 756
12 Last 15 form 10
5 Head-to-head wins 9
1.046 Dominance ratio 0.864
2 Rank 11
29.5 Age 39.4
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alexander Zverev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 22W–2L · 91.7%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

30 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Novak Djokovic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 7W–2L · 77.8%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Zverev Novak Djokovic

1st Serve In %

66.5%
63.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.0%
75.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.6%
47.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.5%
24.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.1%
42.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.78
0.74

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25
0.20

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.8%
—

1st Serve Points Won %

74.6%
—

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.8%
—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.8%
—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.2%
—

Aces per Service Game

0.50
—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27
—

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Zverev Novak Djokovic

Break Points Saved %

66.7%
63.2%

Break Points Converted %

39.0%
23.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.1%
—

Break Points Converted %

49.4%
—

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alexander Zverev 5 – 9 Novak Djokovic

Clay Roland Garros · 2025-05-26

QF

Novak Djokovic #6

Alexander Zverev #3

4-6 6-3 6-2 6-4
6 Aces 4
0 Double Faults 1
119 Service Points 103
85 First Serve In 72
65 First Serve Won 55
19 Second Serve Won 11
2 Break Points Saved 4
3 Break Points Faced 8
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Australian Open · 2025-01-13

SF

Alexander Zverev #2

Novak Djokovic #7

7-6(5) 0-0 RET
8 Aces 5
1 Double Faults 0
38 Service Points 54
29 First Serve In 29
24 First Serve Won 21
7 Second Serve Won 15
3 Break Points Saved 5
3 Break Points Faced 5
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Cincinnati Masters · 2023-08-14

SF

Novak Djokovic #2

Alexander Zverev #17

7-6(5) 7-5
4 Aces 10
3 Double Faults 3
80 Service Points 80
51 First Serve In 55
41 First Serve Won 44
16 Second Serve Won 10
3 Break Points Saved 4
4 Break Points Faced 6
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Tour Finals · 2021-11-15

SF

Alexander Zverev #3

Novak Djokovic #1

7-6(4) 4-6 6-3
14 Aces 15
1 Double Faults 1
96 Service Points 92
69 First Serve In 60
54 First Serve Won 52
17 Second Serve Won 13
3 Break Points Saved 3
4 Break Points Faced 4
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Us Open · 2021-08-30

SF

Novak Djokovic #1

Alexander Zverev #4

4-6 6-2 6-4 4-6 6-2
12 Aces 16
2 Double Faults 8
150 Service Points 124
99 First Serve In 77
76 First Serve Won 58
22 Second Serve Won 23
9 Break Points Saved 3
12 Break Points Faced 9
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Tokyo Olympics · 2021-07-24

SF

Alexander Zverev #5

Novak Djokovic #1

1-6 6-3 6-1
- Aces -
- Double Faults -
- Service Points -
- First Serve In -
- First Serve Won -
- Second Serve Won -
- Break Points Saved -
- Break Points Faced -
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Australian Open · 2021-02-08

QF

Novak Djokovic #1

Alexander Zverev #7

6-7(6) 6-2 6-4 7-6(6)
23 Aces 21
5 Double Faults 5
162 Service Points 126
119 First Serve In 81
86 First Serve Won 60
19 Second Serve Won 22
9 Break Points Saved 3
12 Break Points Faced 9
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Atp Cup · 2021-02-02

RR

Novak Djokovic #1

Alexander Zverev #7

6-7(3) 6-2 7-5
11 Aces 16
5 Double Faults 8
95 Service Points 100
53 First Serve In 62
43 First Serve Won 44
25 Second Serve Won 19
0 Break Points Saved 2
1 Break Points Faced 6
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Tour Finals · 2020-11-16

RR

Novak Djokovic #1

Alexander Zverev #7

6-3 7-6(4)
3 Aces 12
3 Double Faults 6
78 Service Points 57
51 First Serve In 43
40 First Serve Won 36
14 Second Serve Won 5
3 Break Points Saved 3
3 Break Points Faced 4
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Roland Garros · 2019-05-27

QF

Novak Djokovic #1

Alexander Zverev #5

7-5 6-2 6-2
1 Aces 10
4 Double Faults 8
86 Service Points 84
55 First Serve In 58
44 First Serve Won 38
16 Second Serve Won 9
7 Break Points Saved 5
8 Break Points Faced 11
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Tour Finals · 2018-11-12

F

Alexander Zverev #5

Novak Djokovic #1

6-4 6-3
10 Aces 1
3 Double Faults 1
46 Service Points 57
33 First Serve In 34
26 First Serve Won 25
7 Second Serve Won 8
0 Break Points Saved 2
1 Break Points Faced 6
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Tour Finals · 2018-11-12

RR

Novak Djokovic #1

Alexander Zverev #5

6-4 6-1
1 Aces 9
3 Double Faults 2
52 Service Points 50
32 First Serve In 30
24 First Serve Won 20
14 Second Serve Won 7
2 Break Points Saved 2
2 Break Points Faced 5
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Shanghai Masters · 2018-10-08

SF

Novak Djokovic #3

Alexander Zverev #5

6-2 6-1
0 Aces 2
1 Double Faults 3
46 Service Points 34
33 First Serve In 19
26 First Serve Won 10
7 Second Serve Won 6
0 Break Points Saved 2
0 Break Points Faced 6
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Rome Masters · 2017-05-15

F

Alexander Zverev #17

Novak Djokovic #2

6-4 6-3
7 Aces 1
2 Double Faults 3
45 Service Points 67
32 First Serve In 43
27 First Serve Won 30
9 Second Serve Won 9
0 Break Points Saved 2
0 Break Points Faced 5
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Alexander Zverev — Last 10

W W W L W W W W W W

Novak Djokovic — Last 10

W W L L L W W W W W