ATP tennis predict — Alexander Zverev vs Luciano Darderi

Grand Slam Hard US Open · R16 03:15

Predicted probability

Alexander Zverev

Germany

80.51%

Luciano Darderi

Italy

19.49%

Average Odds

1.09 / 7.41

Market probability

87.18% / 12.82%

Why This Prediction?

Alexander Zverev is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2024 vs 1791), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1963 vs 1623) and a stronger serve (68.5% vs 63.7% of service points won).

Player Comparison

2023.6 Elo 1791.1

1963.0 Elo (surface) 1623.1

592 Wins 97

346 Wins (surface) 22

11 Last 15 form 9

1 Head-to-head wins 1

1.046 Dominance ratio 1.109

2 Rank 22

29.4 Age 24.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alexander Zverev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 20W–1L · 95.2%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Luciano Darderi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–4L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Zverev Luciano Darderi

1st Serve In %

65.1%

58.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

78.6%

71.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.9%

48.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

33.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.9%

54.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.73

0.77

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.8%

52.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.6%

71.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.8%

52.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.8%

36.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.2%

57.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.50

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Zverev Luciano Darderi

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

68.8%

Break Points Converted %

34.2%

40.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.1%

71.2%

Break Points Converted %

49.4%

48.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alexander Zverev 1 – 1 Luciano Darderi

Hard US Open · 2026-09-08

R16

Alexander Zverev #2

Luciano Darderi #22

6-2 6-2 7-6

13 Aces 9

- Double Faults -

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

- First Serve Won -

- Second Serve Won -

1 Break Points Saved 13

1 Break Points Faced 17

43 Winners 30

23 Unforced Errors 28

1.1 Average Odds 7.4

Clay Rome Masters · 2026-05-06

R16

Luciano Darderi #20

Alexander Zverev #3

1-6 7-6(10) 6-0

4 Aces 4

4 Double Faults 5

86 Service Points 86

45 First Serve In 62

36 First Serve Won 40

19 Second Serve Won 14

3 Break Points Saved 5

7 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Rome Masters · 2024-05-06

R32

Alexander Zverev #5

Luciano Darderi #54

7-6(3) 6-2

12 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 1

67 Service Points 60

49 First Serve In 34

41 First Serve Won 25

8 Second Serve Won 14

1 Break Points Saved 2

1 Break Points Faced 4