ATP tennis predict — Alexander Zverev vs Lorenzo Sonego

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 1. round 03:05

Predicted probability

Alexander Zverev

Germany

86.98%

Lorenzo Sonego

Italy

13.02%

Average Odds

1.05 / 10.70

Market probability

91.06% / 8.94%

Why This Prediction?

Alexander Zverev is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2013 vs 1742), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1949 vs 1601) and fewer double faults per game (0.09 vs 0.12).

Player Comparison

2012.5 Elo 1741.8

1949.1 Elo (surface) 1601.5

589 Wins 216

343 Wins (surface) 112

11 Last 15 form 7

6 Head-to-head wins 0

0.856 Dominance ratio 0.999

2 Rank 89

29.4 Age 31.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alexander Zverev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 20W–1L · 95.2%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Lorenzo Sonego

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Zverev Lorenzo Sonego

1st Serve In %

65.1%

60.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

78.6%

72.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.9%

59.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

23.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.9%

47.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.73

0.54

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.8%

61.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.6%

70.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.8%

52.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.8%

34.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.2%

54.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.50

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Zverev Lorenzo Sonego

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

66.1%

Break Points Converted %

34.2%

39.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.1%

58.0%

Break Points Converted %

49.4%

44.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alexander Zverev 6 – 0 Lorenzo Sonego

Hard US Open · 2026-09-02

1. round

Alexander Zverev #2

Lorenzo Sonego #89

6-4 3-6 6-7 7-5 6-4

12 Aces 16

8 Double Faults 4

156 Service Points 188

102 First Serve In 124

79 First Serve Won 91

29 Second Serve Won 31

2 Break Points Saved 17

5 Break Points Faced 22

61 Winners 51

39 Unforced Errors 43

1.1 Average Odds 10.7

Hard Beijing · 2025-09-25

R32

Alexander Zverev #3

Lorenzo Sonego #44

6-4 6-3

4 Aces 2

0 Double Faults 2

50 Service Points 59

41 First Serve In 38

32 First Serve Won 24

6 Second Serve Won 9

0 Break Points Saved 1

1 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Grass Halle · 2025-06-16

R16

Alexander Zverev #3

Lorenzo Sonego #46

3-6 6-4 7-6(2)

10 Aces 5

0 Double Faults 2

82 Service Points 104

74 First Serve In 79

61 First Serve Won 56

4 Second Serve Won 13

0 Break Points Saved 3

1 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Grass Halle · 2024-06-17

R16

Alexander Zverev #4

Lorenzo Sonego #57

6-4 7-6(5)

7 Aces 6

1 Double Faults 3

56 Service Points 77

44 First Serve In 43

38 First Serve Won 32

10 Second Serve Won 19

0 Break Points Saved 5

0 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard United Cup · 2024-01-01

RR

Alexander Zverev #7

Lorenzo Sonego #46

6-7(5) 6-3 6-4

7 Aces 7

1 Double Faults 2

87 Service Points 111

64 First Serve In 70

52 First Serve Won 50

17 Second Serve Won 20

0 Break Points Saved 9

0 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Dubai · 2023-02-27

QF

Alexander Zverev #16

Lorenzo Sonego #67

7-5 6-4

5 Aces 6

1 Double Faults 1

61 Service Points 69

50 First Serve In 49

42 First Serve Won 33

4 Second Serve Won 10

6 Break Points Saved 3

6 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Monte Carlo Masters · 2021-04-12

R32

Alexander Zverev #6

Lorenzo Sonego #28

6-3 6-3

6 Aces 0

2 Double Faults 1

75 Service Points 56

49 First Serve In 32

33 First Serve Won 17

11 Second Serve Won 10

7 Break Points Saved 1

9 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Alexander Zverev vs Lorenzo Sonego — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Alexander Zverev — Last 10

Lorenzo Sonego — Last 10