ATP tennis predict — Alexander Zverev vs Karen Khachanov

Grand Slam Hard US Open · SF 21:00

Predicted probability

Alexander Zverev

Germany

84.24%

Karen Khachanov

Russia

15.76%

Average Odds

1.20 / 4.54

Market probability

79.09% / 20.91%

Why This Prediction?

Alexander Zverev is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2246 vs 1984), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (2148 vs 1923) and a stronger serve (68.5% vs 63.2% of service points won).

Player Comparison

2246.2 Elo 1984.2

2147.7 Elo (surface) 1922.7

594 Wins 347

348 Wins (surface) 222

12 Last 15 form 9

6 Head-to-head wins 3

1.046 Dominance ratio 0.970

2 Rank 50

29.4 Age 30.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alexander Zverev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 20W–1L · 95.2%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Karen Khachanov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–6L · 40.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Zverev Karen Khachanov

1st Serve In %

65.1%

57.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

78.6%

72.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.9%

47.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

22.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.9%

49.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.73

0.55

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.8%

54.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.6%

72.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.8%

53.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.8%

29.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.2%

50.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.50

0.59

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Zverev Karen Khachanov

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

64.8%

Break Points Converted %

34.2%

42.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.1%

68.1%

Break Points Converted %

49.4%

33.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alexander Zverev 6 – 3 Karen Khachanov

Hard US Open · 2026-09-11

SF

Alexander Zverev #2

Karen Khachanov #50

6-3 7-6 7-6

16 Aces 6

6 Double Faults 3

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

55 First Serve Won 51

23 Second Serve Won 20

1 Break Points Saved 1

2 Break Points Faced 3

38 Winners 28

34 Unforced Errors 36

1.2 Average Odds 4.5

Hard Cincinnati Masters · 2025-08-07

R16

Alexander Zverev #3

Karen Khachanov #12

7-5 3-0 RET

5 Aces 1

1 Double Faults 0

34 Service Points 54

25 First Serve In 32

20 First Serve Won 22

4 Second Serve Won 5

0 Break Points Saved 4

1 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Canada Masters · 2025-07-27

SF

Karen Khachanov #16

Alexander Zverev #3

6-3 4-6 7-6(4)

5 Aces 13

3 Double Faults 7

105 Service Points 102

63 First Serve In 72

46 First Serve Won 52

22 Second Serve Won 13

1 Break Points Saved 2

2 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Cincinnati Masters · 2024-08-12

R32

Alexander Zverev #4

Karen Khachanov #22

6-3 6-2

7 Aces 5

2 Double Faults 2

56 Service Points 53

37 First Serve In 30

31 First Serve Won 18

7 Second Serve Won 10

3 Break Points Saved 4

4 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Miami Masters · 2024-03-18

R16

Alexander Zverev #5

Karen Khachanov #16

6-1 6-4

9 Aces 5

0 Double Faults 0

45 Service Points 41

33 First Serve In 26

26 First Serve Won 17

10 Second Serve Won 6

0 Break Points Saved 1

0 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Tokyo Olympics · 2021-07-24

F

Alexander Zverev #5

Karen Khachanov #25

6-3 6-1

- Aces -

- Double Faults -

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

- First Serve Won -

- Second Serve Won -

- Break Points Saved -

- Break Points Faced -

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Canada Masters · 2019-08-05

QF

Karen Khachanov #8

Alexander Zverev #7

6-3 6-3

5 Aces 3

0 Double Faults 8

51 Service Points 53

33 First Serve In 34

27 First Serve Won 24

11 Second Serve Won 6

2 Break Points Saved 5

2 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Paris Masters · 2018-10-29

QF

Karen Khachanov #18

Alexander Zverev #5

6-1 6-2

2 Aces 5

0 Double Faults 7

36 Service Points 68

21 First Serve In 47

17 First Serve Won 26

9 Second Serve Won 4

2 Break Points Saved 5

3 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Roland Garros · 2018-05-28

R16

Alexander Zverev #3

Karen Khachanov #38

4-6 7-6(4) 2-6 6-3 6-3

17 Aces 9

4 Double Faults 4

152 Service Points 150

103 First Serve In 96

76 First Serve Won 63

24 Second Serve Won 31

12 Break Points Saved 8

17 Break Points Faced 13

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard St. Petersburg · 2016-09-19

R32

Alexander Zverev #27

Karen Khachanov #102

7-6(3) 6-4

5 Aces 4

3 Double Faults 2

65 Service Points 73

41 First Serve In 47

31 First Serve Won 34

15 Second Serve Won 11

1 Break Points Saved 6

2 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Alexander Zverev vs Karen Khachanov — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Alexander Zverev — Last 10

Karen Khachanov — Last 10