ATP tennis predict — Alexander Zverev vs Juncheng Shang

ATP Hard Beijing · R16 04:00

Predicted probability

Alexander Zverev

Germany

87.88%

Juncheng Shang

China

12.12%

Average Odds

1.06 / 8.90

Market probability

89.36% / 10.64%

Why This Prediction?

Alexander Zverev is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2252 vs 1848), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (2162 vs 1762) and a stronger serve (68.5% vs 60.3% of service points won).

Player Comparison

2252.2 Elo 1847.5

2161.5 Elo (surface) 1762.1

598 Wins 68

352 Wins (surface) 55

11 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.046 Dominance ratio 0.816

2 Rank 250

29.4 Age 21.7

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alexander Zverev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 21W–2L · 91.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

29 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Juncheng Shang

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-07-27.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Zverev Juncheng Shang

1st Serve In %

66.7%

58.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

78.0%

62.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.5%

55.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.3%

25.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.7%

46.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.74

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.8%

67.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.6%

68.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.8%

49.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.8%

30.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.2%

58.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.50

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.10

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Zverev Juncheng Shang

Break Points Saved %

65.8%

63.3%

Break Points Converted %

37.1%

42.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.1%

59.4%

Break Points Converted %

49.4%

45.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alexander Zverev and Juncheng Shang have never played each other.

Alexander Zverev vs Juncheng Shang — Prediction