ATP tennis predict — Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelton

Grand Slam Hard US Open · F 20:00

Predicted probability

Alexander Zverev

Germany

68.67%

Ben Shelton

USA

31.33%

Average Odds

1.67 / 2.24

Market probability

57.29% / 42.71%

Why This Prediction?

Alexander Zverev is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2249 vs 2181), a lighter recent match load (229 vs 242 games played recently) and a higher Elo rating on hard courts (2153 vs 2151).

Player Comparison

2249.5 Elo 2181.1

2152.5 Elo (surface) 2150.6

595 Wins 151

349 Wins (surface) 107

12 Last 15 form 13

5 Head-to-head wins 0

1.046 Dominance ratio 0.939

2 Rank 9

29.4 Age 23.9

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alexander Zverev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 20W–1L · 95.2%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Ben Shelton

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–1L · 91.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Zverev Ben Shelton

1st Serve In %

65.1%

66.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

78.6%

75.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.9%

57.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

26.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.9%

50.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.73

0.46

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.8%

60.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.6%

75.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.8%

56.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.8%

33.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.2%

47.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.50

0.64

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Zverev Ben Shelton

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

Break Points Converted %

34.2%

39.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.1%

74.1%

Break Points Converted %

49.4%

41.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alexander Zverev 5 – 0 Ben Shelton

Hard US Open · 2026-09-13

F

Alexander Zverev #2

Ben Shelton #9

6-3 7-6 5-7 6-2

9 Aces 10

6 Double Faults 4

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

68 First Serve Won 62

17 Second Serve Won 20

2 Break Points Saved 2

3 Break Points Faced 6

35 Winners 47

31 Unforced Errors 47

1.7 Average Odds 2.2

Hard Tour Finals · 2025-11-09

RR

Alexander Zverev #3

Ben Shelton #5

6-3 7-6(6)

5 Aces 7

0 Double Faults 2

54 Service Points 71

44 First Serve In 50

37 First Serve Won 39

7 Second Serve Won 5

0 Break Points Saved 3

0 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Cincinnati Masters · 2025-08-07

QF

Alexander Zverev #3

Ben Shelton #6

6-2 6-2

5 Aces 12

2 Double Faults 2

49 Service Points 58

32 First Serve In 39

26 First Serve Won 26

9 Second Serve Won 4

1 Break Points Saved 7

1 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Grass Stuttgart · 2025-06-09

SF

Alexander Zverev #3

Ben Shelton #12

7-6(8) 7-6(1)

15 Aces 21

1 Double Faults 5

75 Service Points 97

58 First Serve In 60

50 First Serve Won 47

10 Second Serve Won 18

0 Break Points Saved 6

0 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Munich · 2025-04-14

F

Alexander Zverev #3

Ben Shelton #15

6-2 6-4

4 Aces 3

5 Double Faults 3

48 Service Points 50

37 First Serve In 32

33 First Serve Won 23

4 Second Serve Won 7

0 Break Points Saved 1

0 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Cincinnati Masters · 2024-08-12

QF

Alexander Zverev #4

Ben Shelton #14

3-6 7-6(3) 7-5

10 Aces 14

8 Double Faults 4

89 Service Points 109

54 First Serve In 74

44 First Serve Won 54

24 Second Serve Won 20

3 Break Points Saved 7

4 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelton — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Alexander Zverev — Last 10

Ben Shelton — Last 10