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Alexander Zverev vs Alexander Bublik — Prediction

ATP Hard Shanghai · R16 12:00

Predicted probability

Alexander Zverev

Germany

75.05%

Alexander Bublik

Kazakhstan

24.95%

Average Odds

1.30  /  3.53

Market probability

73.08%  /  26.92%

Why This Prediction?

Alexander Zverev is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2250 vs 2031), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (2162 vs 1952) and better recent form (12 wins in his last 15 matches vs 9).

Player Comparison

2250.1 Elo 2031.4
2161.5 Elo (surface) 1952.5
601 Wins 257
355 Wins (surface) 154
12 Last 15 form 9
1 Head-to-head wins 3
1.046 Dominance ratio 1.306
2 Rank 22
29.5 Age 29.3
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alexander Zverev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 24W–2L · 92.3%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–3L · 40.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

33 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Alexander Bublik

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Zverev Alexander Bublik

1st Serve In %

71.3%
64.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.2%
81.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.0%
55.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

38.3%
31.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

59.0%
53.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.77
1.05

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21
0.25

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.8%
61.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.6%
77.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.8%
46.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.8%
33.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.2%
51.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.50
0.96

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27
0.37

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Zverev Alexander Bublik

Break Points Saved %

75.0%
73.3%

Break Points Converted %

44.6%
46.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.1%
57.4%

Break Points Converted %

49.4%
50.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alexander Zverev 1 – 3 Alexander Bublik

Grass Halle · 2023-06-19

SF

Alexander Bublik #48

Alexander Zverev #22

6-3 7-5
14 Aces 9
7 Double Faults 2
60 Service Points 55
34 First Serve In 39
32 First Serve Won 29
14 Second Serve Won 7
1 Break Points Saved 3
1 Break Points Faced 5
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Monte Carlo Masters · 2023-04-10

R64

Alexander Zverev #16

Alexander Bublik #53

3-6 6-2 6-4
3 Aces 7
2 Double Faults 10
69 Service Points 88
39 First Serve In 48
29 First Serve Won 32
14 Second Serve Won 16
2 Break Points Saved 11
6 Break Points Faced 17
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Montpellier · 2022-01-31

F

Alexander Bublik #35

Alexander Zverev #3

6-4 6-3
8 Aces 4
3 Double Faults 3
48 Service Points 57
29 First Serve In 41
25 First Serve Won 26
8 Second Serve Won 5
2 Break Points Saved 4
3 Break Points Faced 8
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Rotterdam · 2021-03-01

R32

Alexander Bublik #43

Alexander Zverev #7

7-5 6-3
5 Aces 1
4 Double Faults 0
63 Service Points 58
34 First Serve In 37
29 First Serve Won 25
13 Second Serve Won 10
2 Break Points Saved 5
4 Break Points Faced 9
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Alexander Zverev — Last 10

W W L W W W L W W W

Alexander Bublik — Last 10

W W L L L W W L W W