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Alexander Zverev vs Alex De Minaur — Prediction

ATP Hard Laver Cup · - 15:30

Predicted probability

Alexander Zverev

Germany

77.83%

Alex De Minaur

Australia

22.17%

Average Odds

1.27  /  3.20

Market probability

71.59%  /  28.41%

Why This Prediction?

Alexander Zverev is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2257 vs 2083), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (2164 vs 2046) and a stronger serve (68.5% vs 60.3% of service points won).

Player Comparison

2256.8 Elo 2083.1
2163.7 Elo (surface) 2046.1
596 Wins 354
350 Wins (surface) 258
12 Last 15 form 9
8 Head-to-head wins 3
1.046 Dominance ratio 0.896
2 Rank 9
29.4 Age 27.6
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alexander Zverev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 20W–1L · 95.2%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Alex De Minaur

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 9W–3L · 75.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Zverev Alex De Minaur

1st Serve In %

65.1%
55.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

78.6%
71.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.9%
45.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%
29.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.9%
43.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.73
0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29
0.32

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.8%
66.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.6%
74.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.8%
58.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.8%
32.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.2%
53.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.50
0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27
0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Zverev Alex De Minaur

Break Points Saved %

63.2%
62.7%

Break Points Converted %

34.2%
34.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.1%
71.1%

Break Points Converted %

49.4%
42.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alexander Zverev 8 – 3 Alex De Minaur

Hard Laver Cup · 2025-09-19

RR

Alex De Minaur #8

Alexander Zverev #3

6-1 6-4
0 Aces 1
2 Double Faults 0
60 Service Points 50
42 First Serve In 42
28 First Serve Won 20
12 Second Serve Won 4
3 Break Points Saved 3
4 Break Points Faced 7
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Roland Garros · 2024-05-27

QF

Alexander Zverev #4

Alex De Minaur #11

6-4 7-6(5) 6-4
2 Aces 3
5 Double Faults 4
110 Service Points 91
76 First Serve In 45
53 First Serve Won 28
15 Second Serve Won 27
5 Break Points Saved 1
8 Break Points Faced 6
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Indian Wells Masters · 2024-03-04

R16

Alexander Zverev #6

Alex De Minaur #10

5-7 6-2 6-3
7 Aces 2
3 Double Faults 2
115 Service Points 78
77 First Serve In 38
53 First Serve Won 27
17 Second Serve Won 18
8 Break Points Saved 2
11 Break Points Faced 7
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard United Cup · 2024-01-01

SF

Alex De Minaur #12

Alexander Zverev #7

5-7 6-3 6-4
4 Aces 10
2 Double Faults 0
97 Service Points 83
62 First Serve In 57
43 First Serve Won 42
24 Second Serve Won 15
3 Break Points Saved 2
4 Break Points Faced 4
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Rome Masters · 2022-05-09

R16

Alexander Zverev #3

Alex De Minaur #22

6-3 7-6(5)
4 Aces 0
2 Double Faults 0
61 Service Points 82
41 First Serve In 50
31 First Serve Won 26
9 Second Serve Won 19
1 Break Points Saved 5
4 Break Points Faced 9
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Vienna · 2021-10-25

R16

Alexander Zverev #4

Alex De Minaur #32

6-2 3-6 6-2
17 Aces 1
3 Double Faults 1
71 Service Points 73
44 First Serve In 45
39 First Serve Won 31
12 Second Serve Won 14
4 Break Points Saved 1
5 Break Points Faced 5
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Atp Cup · 2020-01-06

RR

Alex De Minaur #18

Alexander Zverev #7

4-6 7-6(3) 6-2
2 Aces 10
0 Double Faults 14
101 Service Points 106
77 First Serve In 69
52 First Serve Won 52
14 Second Serve Won 12
7 Break Points Saved 8
10 Break Points Faced 12
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Acapulco · 2019-02-25

QF

Alexander Zverev #3

Alex De Minaur #26

6-4 6-4
13 Aces 1
1 Double Faults 2
50 Service Points 55
32 First Serve In 34
29 First Serve Won 28
11 Second Serve Won 11
0 Break Points Saved 0
0 Break Points Faced 2
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Shanghai Masters · 2018-10-08

R16

Alexander Zverev #5

Alex De Minaur #33

6-1 6-4
6 Aces 0
2 Double Faults 2
52 Service Points 50
34 First Serve In 33
28 First Serve Won 20
11 Second Serve Won 7
5 Break Points Saved 1
5 Break Points Faced 4
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Washington · 2018-07-30

F

Alexander Zverev #3

Alex De Minaur #72

6-2 6-4
6 Aces 0
4 Double Faults 2
48 Service Points 58
29 First Serve In 28
26 First Serve Won 18
11 Second Serve Won 15
0 Break Points Saved 8
0 Break Points Faced 11
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Davis Cup WG R1: AUS vs GER · 2018-02-02

RR

Alexander Zverev #5

Alex De Minaur #139

7-5 4-6 4-6 6-3 7-6(4)
15 Aces 6
7 Double Faults 1
167 Service Points 159
104 First Serve In 111
80 First Serve Won 78
34 Second Serve Won 27
9 Break Points Saved 6
13 Break Points Faced 10
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Alexander Zverev — Last 10

W W W W W W W L W W

Alex De Minaur — Last 10

L W L W W L W L W W