ATP tennis predict — Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Tabilo

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 3. round 04:45

Predicted probability

Alexander Zverev

Germany

81.13%

Alejandro Tabilo

Chile

18.87%

Average Odds

1.17 / 5.11

Market probability

81.37% / 18.63%

Why This Prediction?

Alexander Zverev is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2019 vs 1812), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1957 vs 1770) and a stronger serve (68.5% vs 65.0% of service points won).

Player Comparison

2019.3 Elo 1811.8

1957.2 Elo (surface) 1769.9

591 Wins 137

345 Wins (surface) 67

11 Last 15 form 8

2 Head-to-head wins 0

0.983 Dominance ratio 0.845

2 Rank 28

29.4 Age 29.3

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alexander Zverev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 20W–1L · 95.2%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Alejandro Tabilo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Zverev Alejandro Tabilo

1st Serve In %

65.1%

59.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

78.6%

73.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.9%

50.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

20.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.9%

43.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.73

0.66

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.8%

61.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.6%

76.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.8%

51.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.8%

34.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.2%

53.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.50

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Zverev Alejandro Tabilo

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

60.9%

Break Points Converted %

34.2%

32.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.1%

73.0%

Break Points Converted %

49.4%

43.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alexander Zverev 2 – 0 Alejandro Tabilo

Hard US Open · 2026-09-06

3. round

Alexander Zverev #2

Alejandro Tabilo #28

6-2 7-6 6-2

10 Aces 7

2 Double Faults 3

87 Service Points 99

62 First Serve In 60

46 First Serve Won 37

14 Second Serve Won 16

6 Break Points Saved 7

8 Break Points Faced 13

44 Winners 24

32 Unforced Errors 36

1.2 Average Odds 5.1

Hard Us Open · 2025-08-25

R128

Alexander Zverev #3

Alejandro Tabilo #122

6-2 7-6(4) 6-4

9 Aces 8

3 Double Faults 2

100 Service Points 86

66 First Serve In 53

53 First Serve Won 42

20 Second Serve Won 16

6 Break Points Saved 2

6 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Rome Masters · 2024-05-06

SF

Alexander Zverev #5

Alejandro Tabilo #32

1-6 7-6(4) 6-2

10 Aces 7

5 Double Faults 3

81 Service Points 86

56 First Serve In 50

45 First Serve Won 41

9 Second Serve Won 17

2 Break Points Saved 4

4 Break Points Faced 6