ATP tennis predict — Alexander Vasilev vs Juan Manuel La Serna

Challenger Clay Plovdiv 3 challenger · 1. round 14:00

Predicted probability

Alexander Vasilev

Bulgaria

42.11%

Juan Manuel La Serna

Argentina

57.89%

Average Odds

2.46 / 1.49

Market probability

37.72% / 62.28%

Why This Prediction?

Juan Manuel La Serna is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1621 vs 1506), a higher Elo rating (1599 vs 1486) and fewer double faults per game (0.17 vs 0.32).

Player Comparison

1486.0 Elo 1598.9

1506.3 Elo (surface) 1620.6

7 Wins (Challenger) 43

6 Wins (surface) 41

7 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.892 Dominance ratio 0.799

623 Rank 289

19.3 Age 22.6

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alexander Vasilev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-06-09.

Juan Manuel La Serna

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-06-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Vasilev Juan Manuel La Serna

1st Serve In %

—

64.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

57.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

22.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

20.0%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.2%

61.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.4%

65.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.1%

48.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.8%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.8%

47.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.58

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Vasilev Juan Manuel La Serna

Break Points Saved %

—

55.6%

Break Points Converted %

—

0.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

65.5%

48.5%

Break Points Converted %

51.0%

27.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alexander Vasilev 0 – 0 Juan Manuel La Serna

Clay Plovdiv 3 challenger · 2026-09-01

1. round

Juan Manuel La Serna #289

Alexander Vasilev #623

6-1 6-2

0 Aces 0

1 Double Faults 2

45 Service Points 47

30 First Serve In 35

13 First Serve Won 25

6 Second Serve Won 7

3 Break Points Saved 1

8 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.5

Alexander Vasilev vs Juan Manuel La Serna — Prediction