ATP tennis predict — Alexander Shevchenko vs Yoshihito Nishioka

ATP Hard Shanghai · qualification - 1. round 09:45

Predicted probability

Alexander Shevchenko

Kazakhstan

49.37%

Yoshihito Nishioka

Japan

50.63%

Average Odds

1.44 / 2.68

Market probability

65.05% / 34.95%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1787.4 Elo 1797.8

1726.8 Elo (surface) 1769.6

90 Wins 232

54 Wins (surface) 189

5 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.105 Dominance ratio 1.007

109 Rank 214

25.8 Age 31.0

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alexander Shevchenko

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Yoshihito Nishioka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

1 matches with market odds since 2026-09-28.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Shevchenko Yoshihito Nishioka

1st Serve In %

57.0%

66.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.8%

68.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.3%

51.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.8%

30.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.9%

56.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.62

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.08

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.7%

65.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.5%

65.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.8%

55.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

39.1%

32.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.7%

57.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

0.21

Double Faults per Service Game

0.11

0.09

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Shevchenko Yoshihito Nishioka

Break Points Saved %

70.5%

61.1%

Break Points Converted %

40.3%

43.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

65.4%

55.9%

Break Points Converted %

41.1%

56.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alexander Shevchenko 0 – 1 Yoshihito Nishioka

Hard Shanghai Masters · 2025-10-01

R128

Yoshihito Nishioka #173

Alexander Shevchenko #89

6-1 6-2

2 Aces 9

0 Double Faults 1

65 Service Points 46

47 First Serve In 30

32 First Serve Won 21

10 Second Serve Won 2

5 Break Points Saved 4

5 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Alexander Shevchenko vs Yoshihito Nishioka — Prediction