ATP tennis predict — Alexander Shevchenko vs Stefanos Tsitsipas

ATP Clay Gstaad · SF

Predicted probability

Alexander Shevchenko

Kazakhstan

38.27%

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Greece

61.73%

Average Odds

3.77 / 1.26

Market probability

25.05% / 74.95%

Why This Prediction?

Stefanos Tsitsipas is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1846 vs 1729), a higher Elo rating (1836 vs 1724) and a stronger serve (73.4% vs 64.8% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1723.9 Elo 1836.2

1729.5 Elo (surface) 1845.7

89 Wins 419

35 Wins (surface) 142

7 Last 15 form 9

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.995 Dominance ratio 0.951

100 Rank 85

25.6 Age 27.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alexander Shevchenko

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Shevchenko Stefanos Tsitsipas

1st Serve In %

57.1%

60.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.5%

73.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.0%

46.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.3%

25.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.3%

45.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.51

0.53

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.7%

59.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.5%

80.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.8%

62.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

39.1%

29.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.7%

47.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

0.81

Double Faults per Service Game

0.11

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Shevchenko Stefanos Tsitsipas

Break Points Saved %

72.6%

59.2%

Break Points Converted %

38.8%

50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

65.4%

75.8%

Break Points Converted %

41.1%

36.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alexander Shevchenko 1 – 0 Stefanos Tsitsipas

Clay Gstaad · 2026-07-18

SF

Stefanos Tsitsipas #85

Alexander Shevchenko #100

6-4 3-6 6-3

4 Aces 3

3 Double Faults 2

85 Service Points 70

55 First Serve In 43

41 First Serve Won 35

16 Second Serve Won 20

7 Break Points Saved 2

9 Break Points Faced 3

16 Winners 24

37 Unforced Errors 38

1.3 Average Odds 3.8

Hard United Cup · 2024-12-27

RR

Alexander Shevchenko #78

Stefanos Tsitsipas #11

6-4 7-6(0)

2 Aces 7

3 Double Faults 4

70 Service Points 77

45 First Serve In 42

31 First Serve Won 30

19 Second Serve Won 16

1 Break Points Saved 2

2 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Alexander Shevchenko vs Stefanos Tsitsipas — Prediction