ATP tennis predict — Alexander Shevchenko vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz

ATP Hard Cincinnati · qualification - 1. round 18:10

Predicted probability

Alexander Shevchenko

Kazakhstan

63.87%

Pablo Llamas Ruiz

Spain

36.13%

Average Odds

1.80 / 1.96

Market probability

52.13% / 47.87%

Why This Prediction?

Alexander Shevchenko is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1655 vs 1526), a higher Elo rating (1691 vs 1581) and more wins on hard courts (53 vs 9).

Player Comparison

1690.9 Elo 1581.4

1655.4 Elo (surface) 1525.7

89 Wins 34

53 Wins (surface) 9

6 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.103 Dominance ratio 1.364

89 Rank 127

25.7 Age 23.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alexander Shevchenko

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Pablo Llamas Ruiz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Shevchenko Pablo Llamas Ruiz

1st Serve In %

57.1%

65.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.5%

73.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.0%

55.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.3%

30.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.3%

49.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.51

0.56

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.11

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.7%

66.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.5%

66.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.8%

54.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

39.1%

33.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.7%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

0.17

Double Faults per Service Game

0.11

0.08

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Shevchenko Pablo Llamas Ruiz

Break Points Saved %

72.6%

63.0%

Break Points Converted %

38.8%

40.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

65.4%

56.2%

Break Points Converted %

41.1%

38.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alexander Shevchenko 0 – 0 Pablo Llamas Ruiz

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-11

qualification - 1. round

Alexander Shevchenko #89

Pablo Llamas Ruiz #127

6-3 6-4

10 Aces 1

3 Double Faults 1

60 Service Points 69

35 First Serve In 48

29 First Serve Won 30

15 Second Serve Won 12

1 Break Points Saved 4

1 Break Points Faced 6

27 Winners 19

26 Unforced Errors 24

1.8 Average Odds 2.0

Alexander Shevchenko vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz — Prediction