ATP tennis predict — Alexander Shevchenko vs Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Challenger Hard Jinan challenger · R16 04:00

Predicted probability

Alexander Shevchenko

Kazakhstan

55.36%

Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Japan

44.64%

Average Odds

1.82 / 1.88

Market probability

50.81% / 49.19%

Why This Prediction?

Alexander Shevchenko is the favorite because he has a stronger return game (44.7% vs 37.4% of return points won), more wins on hard courts (54 vs 0) and better recent form (4 wins in his last 15 matches vs 0).

Player Comparison

1790.4 Elo 1797.7

1731.6 Elo (surface) 1776.0

94 Wins (Challenger) 37

30 Wins (surface) 37

10 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.270 Dominance ratio 1.032

111 Rank 260

25.9 Age 22.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alexander Shevchenko

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–8L · 57.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

35 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Shevchenko Jay Dylan Hara Friend

1st Serve In %

56.1%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

74.7%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.4%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.9%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.5%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.59

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.7%

61.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.7%

64.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.8%

41.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

38.1%

34.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.7%

71.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.37

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.09

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Shevchenko Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Break Points Saved %

68.5%

—

Break Points Converted %

38.6%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.3%

50.8%

Break Points Converted %

41.2%

48.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alexander Shevchenko and Jay Dylan Hara Friend have never played each other.

Alexander Shevchenko vs Jay Dylan Hara Friend — Prediction