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Alexander Shevchenko vs Hubert Hurkacz — Prediction

ATP Hard Chengdu · 1. round 04:00

Predicted probability

Alexander Shevchenko

Kazakhstan

30.75%

Hubert Hurkacz

Poland

69.25%

Average Odds

4.46  /  1.20

Market probability

21.20%  /  78.80%

Why This Prediction?

Hubert Hurkacz is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1929 vs 1735), a higher Elo rating (2018 vs 1792) and more wins on hard courts (174 vs 54).

Player Comparison

1792.5 Elo 2017.8
1734.6 Elo (surface) 1929.0
90 Wins 262
54 Wins (surface) 174
5 Last 15 form 8
0 Head-to-head wins 4
1.105 Dominance ratio 0.990
109 Rank 46
25.8 Age 29.6
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alexander Shevchenko

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Hubert Hurkacz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Shevchenko Hubert Hurkacz

1st Serve In %

57.1%
61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.5%
77.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.0%
47.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.3%
27.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.3%
45.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.51
0.80

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27
0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.7%
60.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.5%
69.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.8%
52.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

39.1%
32.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.7%
47.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.44
0.59

Double Faults per Service Game

0.11
0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Shevchenko Hubert Hurkacz

Break Points Saved %

72.6%
60.6%

Break Points Converted %

38.8%
35.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

65.4%
60.0%

Break Points Converted %

41.1%
41.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alexander Shevchenko 0 – 4 Hubert Hurkacz

Hard United Cup · 2024-12-27

SF

Hubert Hurkacz #16

Alexander Shevchenko #78

6-3 6-2
10 Aces 1
0 Double Faults 1
46 Service Points 49
35 First Serve In 34
28 First Serve Won 18
8 Second Serve Won 9
0 Break Points Saved 1
0 Break Points Faced 4
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Miami Masters · 2024-03-18

R64

Hubert Hurkacz #9

Alexander Shevchenko #58

6-4 6-7(2) 6-3
28 Aces 5
1 Double Faults 1
87 Service Points 92
63 First Serve In 62
51 First Serve Won 46
16 Second Serve Won 17
0 Break Points Saved 2
0 Break Points Faced 4
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Marseille · 2024-02-05

R16

Hubert Hurkacz #8

Alexander Shevchenko #56

6-1 6-4
13 Aces 3
1 Double Faults 0
47 Service Points 58
27 First Serve In 33
22 First Serve Won 20
12 Second Serve Won 6
3 Break Points Saved 3
5 Break Points Faced 8
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Dubai · 2023-02-27

R32

Hubert Hurkacz #11

Alexander Shevchenko #119

3-6 6-3 7-6(7)
18 Aces 3
3 Double Faults 2
81 Service Points 103
62 First Serve In 63
51 First Serve Won 45
10 Second Serve Won 23
2 Break Points Saved 9
4 Break Points Faced 11
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Alexander Shevchenko — Last 10

L L L W L L L W W W

Hubert Hurkacz — Last 10

L W W W W W L W L W