ATP tennis predict — Alexander Donski vs Takuya Kumasaka

Challenger Hard Grodzisk Mazowiecki challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Alexander Donski

Bulgaria

70.83%

Takuya Kumasaka

Japan

29.17%

Average Odds

1.60 / 2.22

Market probability

58.12% / 41.88%

Why This Prediction?

Alexander Donski is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1621 vs 1461), a higher Elo rating (1591 vs 1448) and a stronger serve (69.3% vs 63.1% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1590.7 Elo 1448.3

1620.8 Elo (surface) 1460.6

40 Wins (Challenger) 23

17 Wins (surface) 23

10 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.338 Dominance ratio 1.112

551 Rank 549

28.0 Age 27.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alexander Donski

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Takuya Kumasaka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

11 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Donski Takuya Kumasaka

1st Serve In %

55.0%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

39.2%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.8%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

40.3%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.81

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.7%

58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.7%

72.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.3%

53.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.8%

31.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.6%

48.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Donski Takuya Kumasaka

Break Points Saved %

55.0%

—

Break Points Converted %

20.0%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

68.3%

64.6%

Break Points Converted %

36.1%

34.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alexander Donski 0 – 0 Takuya Kumasaka

Hard Grodzisk Mazowiecki challenger · 2026-08-04

1. round

Alexander Donski #551

Takuya Kumasaka #549

7-5 6-4

12 Aces 7

5 Double Faults 2

72 Service Points 71

41 First Serve In 41

35 First Serve Won 31

12 Second Serve Won 12

6 Break Points Saved 6

7 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.2

Alexander Donski vs Takuya Kumasaka — Prediction