ATP tennis predict — Alexander Donski vs Marko Topo

Challenger Clay Zug challenger · qualification - 1. round

Predicted probability

Alexander Donski

Bulgaria

31.60%

Marko Topo

Germany

68.40%

Average Odds

3.43 / 1.28

Market probability

27.18% / 72.82%

Why This Prediction?

Marko Topo is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1566 vs 1450), a higher Elo rating (1561 vs 1538) and a stronger return game (36.0% vs 26.9% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1538.2 Elo 1560.7

1450.0 Elo (surface) 1566.0

36 Wins (Challenger) 69

21 Wins (surface) 53

10 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.040 Dominance ratio 0.992

550 Rank 374

28.0 Age 22.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alexander Donski

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Marko Topo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Donski Marko Topo

1st Serve In %

55.0%

58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

66.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

39.2%

45.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.8%

29.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

40.3%

46.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.81

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.7%

57.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.7%

68.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.3%

51.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.8%

32.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.6%

48.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Donski Marko Topo

Break Points Saved %

55.0%

59.0%

Break Points Converted %

20.0%

42.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

68.3%

55.7%

Break Points Converted %

36.1%

46.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alexander Donski 0 – 0 Marko Topo

Clay Zug challenger · 2026-07-19

qualification - 1. round

Alexander Donski #549

Marko Topo #351

6-4 6-1

10 Aces 6

1 Double Faults 7

46 Service Points 65

24 First Serve In 31

18 First Serve Won 18

17 Second Serve Won 16

0 Break Points Saved 5

0 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

3.4 Average Odds 1.3

Alexander Donski vs Marko Topo — Prediction