ATP tennis predict — Alexander Donski vs Juan Pablo Varillas

Challenger Clay Zug challenger · qualification - round of 16

Predicted probability

Alexander Donski

Bulgaria

33.83%

Juan Pablo Varillas

Peru

66.17%

Average Odds

2.52 / 1.48

Market probability

37.00% / 63.00%

Why This Prediction?

Juan Pablo Varillas is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1658 vs 1484), a higher Elo rating (1637 vs 1560) and more wins on clay courts (209 vs 22).

Player Comparison

1560.4 Elo 1636.5

1484.0 Elo (surface) 1658.0

37 Wins (Challenger) 212

22 Wins (surface) 209

10 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.126 Dominance ratio 0.945

549 Rank 275

28.0 Age 30.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alexander Donski

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Juan Pablo Varillas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-06-29.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Donski Juan Pablo Varillas

1st Serve In %

55.0%

56.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

69.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

39.2%

53.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.8%

27.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

40.3%

49.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.81

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.7%

57.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.7%

71.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.3%

51.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.8%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.6%

55.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Donski Juan Pablo Varillas

Break Points Saved %

55.0%

69.0%

Break Points Converted %

20.0%

50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

68.3%

54.1%

Break Points Converted %

36.1%

43.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alexander Donski 0 – 0 Juan Pablo Varillas

Clay Zug challenger · 2026-07-20

qualification - round of 16

Alexander Donski #549

Juan Pablo Varillas #275

7-5 6-3

1 Aces 11

1 Double Faults 4

65 Service Points 68

36 First Serve In 38

21 First Serve Won 29

15 Second Serve Won 17

1 Break Points Saved 6

4 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.5 Average Odds 1.5

Alexander Donski vs Juan Pablo Varillas — Prediction