ATP tennis predict — Alexander Donski vs Andrea Guerrieri

Challenger Hard Quebec City challenger · qualification - round of 16 17:00

Predicted probability

Alexander Donski

Bulgaria

43.03%

Andrea Guerrieri

Italy

56.97%

Average Odds

2.72 / 1.41

Market probability

34.14% / 65.86%

Why This Prediction?

Andrea Guerrieri is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1667 vs 1604), a stronger return game (43.9% vs 26.9% of return points won) and more career match wins (54 vs 42).

Player Comparison

1603.9 Elo 1667.5

1635.7 Elo (surface) 1624.0

42 Wins (Challenger) 54

19 Wins (surface) 14

9 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.119 Dominance ratio 1.046

502 Rank 189

28.0 Age 27.7

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alexander Donski

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Andrea Guerrieri

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Donski Andrea Guerrieri

1st Serve In %

55.0%

58.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

70.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

39.2%

49.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.8%

32.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

40.3%

59.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.81

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34

0.36

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.7%

54.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.7%

68.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.3%

48.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.8%

29.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.6%

48.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.44

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Donski Andrea Guerrieri

Break Points Saved %

55.0%

66.7%

Break Points Converted %

20.0%

35.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

68.3%

58.6%

Break Points Converted %

36.1%

32.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alexander Donski 0 – 1 Andrea Guerrieri

Hard Quebec City challenger · 2026-08-17

qualification - round of 16

Andrea Guerrieri #189

Alexander Donski #502

6-4 1-6 6-1

15 Aces 6

8 Double Faults 7

93 Service Points 89

43 First Serve In 42

32 First Serve Won 28

21 Second Serve Won 24

9 Break Points Saved 6

13 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.7

Hard Bergamo CH · 2025-11-17

R16

Andrea Guerrieri #573

Alexander Donski #731

6-4 6-0

0 Aces 8

2 Double Faults 4

43 Service Points 60

28 First Serve In 35

25 First Serve Won 22

7 Second Serve Won 8

0 Break Points Saved 4

0 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Alexander Donski vs Andrea Guerrieri — Prediction