ATP tennis predict — Alexander Donski vs Alejo Sanchez Quilez

Challenger Hard Porto challenger · qualification - 1. round 12:00

Predicted probability

Alexander Donski

Bulgaria

49.17%

Alejo Sanchez Quilez

Spain

50.83%

Average Odds

3.02 / 1.34

Market probability

30.73% / 69.27%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1630.8 Elo 1597.2

1619.8 Elo (surface) 1617.2

42 Wins (Challenger) 32

19 Wins (surface) 11

9 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.081 Dominance ratio 0.958

523 Rank 364

28.2 Age 21.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alexander Donski

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Alejo Sanchez Quilez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Donski Alejo Sanchez Quilez

1st Serve In %

55.0%

65.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

62.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

39.2%

47.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.8%

25.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

40.3%

36.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.81

0.10

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34

0.10

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.7%

61.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.7%

67.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.3%

52.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.8%

31.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.6%

46.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Donski Alejo Sanchez Quilez

Break Points Saved %

55.0%

33.3%

Break Points Converted %

20.0%

66.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

68.3%

55.2%

Break Points Converted %

36.1%

46.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alexander Donski and Alejo Sanchez Quilez have never played each other.

Alexander Donski vs Alejo Sanchez Quilez — Prediction