ATP tennis predict — Alexander Donski vs Alejandro Moro Canas

Challenger Hard Grodzisk Mazowiecki challenger · R16 10:10

Predicted probability

Alexander Donski

Bulgaria

47.28%

Alejandro Moro Canas

Spain

52.72%

Average Odds

3.87 / 1.23

Market probability

24.12% / 75.88%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1603.2 Elo 1634.5

1636.6 Elo (surface) 1646.0

41 Wins (Challenger) 116

18 Wins (surface) 57

10 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.259 Dominance ratio 1.117

551 Rank 236

28.0 Age 25.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alexander Donski

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Alejandro Moro Canas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–5L · 64.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Donski Alejandro Moro Canas

1st Serve In %

55.0%

66.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

65.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

39.2%

53.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.8%

28.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

40.3%

44.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.81

0.30

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.7%

64.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.7%

64.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.3%

40.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.8%

37.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.6%

55.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Donski Alejandro Moro Canas

Break Points Saved %

55.0%

59.7%

Break Points Converted %

20.0%

34.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

68.3%

59.3%

Break Points Converted %

36.1%

43.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alexander Donski 0 – 0 Alejandro Moro Canas

Hard Grodzisk Mazowiecki challenger · 2026-08-05

R16

Alexander Donski #551

Alejandro Moro Canas #236

6-4 7-6

3 Aces 7

0 Double Faults 3

65 Service Points 71

46 First Serve In 42

32 First Serve Won 39

14 Second Serve Won 18

1 Break Points Saved 3

2 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

3.9 Average Odds 1.2

Alexander Donski vs Alejandro Moro Canas — Prediction