ATP tennis predict — Alexander Bublik vs Tommy Paul

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 3. round 18:30

Predicted probability

Alexander Bublik

Kazakhstan

46.35%

Tommy Paul

USA

53.65%

Average Odds

2.41 / 1.57

Market probability

39.45% / 60.55%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1871.3 Elo 1914.8

1751.7 Elo (surface) 1789.1

255 Wins 287

152 Wins (surface) 194

10 Last 15 form 10

2 Head-to-head wins 5

1.234 Dominance ratio 0.855

16 Rank 21

29.2 Age 29.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alexander Bublik

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Tommy Paul

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Bublik Tommy Paul

1st Serve In %

62.8%

59.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

80.8%

70.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.7%

51.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.7%

26.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.6%

45.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.84

0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.7%

55.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.4%

74.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.8%

53.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.6%

32.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.5%

49.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.96

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Bublik Tommy Paul

Break Points Saved %

76.2%

55.1%

Break Points Converted %

42.1%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.4%

62.8%

Break Points Converted %

50.7%

45.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alexander Bublik 2 – 5 Tommy Paul

Hard US Open · 2026-09-04

3. round

Tommy Paul #21

Alexander Bublik #16

6-4 3-6 6-7 6-1 6-3

16 Aces 10

6 Double Faults 1

143 Service Points 141

85 First Serve In 93

61 First Serve Won 71

29 Second Serve Won 29

2 Break Points Saved 5

8 Break Points Faced 7

41 Winners 44

49 Unforced Errors 35

1.6 Average Odds 2.4

Hard Us Open · 2025-08-25

R32

Alexander Bublik #24

Tommy Paul #14

7-6(5) 6-7(4) 6-3 6-7(5) 6-1

22 Aces 10

12 Double Faults 4

179 Service Points 160

110 First Serve In 97

91 First Serve Won 73

36 Second Serve Won 35

6 Break Points Saved 5

6 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Miami Masters · 2025-03-19

R64

Tommy Paul #13

Alexander Bublik #80

5-7 7-5 6-4

17 Aces 19

2 Double Faults 10

100 Service Points 112

58 First Serve In 66

46 First Serve Won 52

27 Second Serve Won 22

3 Break Points Saved 10

4 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Grass Wimbledon · 2024-07-01

R32

Tommy Paul #13

Alexander Bublik #23

6-3 6-4 6-2

9 Aces 15

3 Double Faults 2

75 Service Points 79

52 First Serve In 51

44 First Serve Won 36

14 Second Serve Won 9

1 Break Points Saved 5

1 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Rotterdam · 2021-03-01

R16

Tommy Paul #56

Alexander Bublik #43

6-7(5) 6-3 6-1

5 Aces 11

0 Double Faults 6

77 Service Points 96

53 First Serve In 56

46 First Serve Won 43

15 Second Serve Won 16

0 Break Points Saved 4

0 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Hamburg · 2020-09-21

Q2

Tommy Paul #59

Alexander Bublik #56

6-4 6-4

2 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 2

62 Service Points 52

43 First Serve In 29

30 First Serve Won 21

13 Second Serve Won 10

4 Break Points Saved 0

5 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Grass Queen's Club · 2019-06-17

Q2

Alexander Bublik #85

Tommy Paul #138

6-4 7-6(4)

14 Aces 2

8 Double Faults 3

82 Service Points 74

53 First Serve In 43

41 First Serve Won 33

11 Second Serve Won 13

5 Break Points Saved 5

7 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Playford CH · 2018-12-31

R32

Tommy Paul #202

Alexander Bublik #162

1-6 6-4 7-5

1 Aces 14

6 Double Faults 9

94 Service Points 87

57 First Serve In 52

38 First Serve Won 35

18 Second Serve Won 17

3 Break Points Saved 7

8 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Alexander Bublik vs Tommy Paul — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Alexander Bublik — Last 10

Tommy Paul — Last 10