ATP tennis predict — Alexander Bublik vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry

ATP Clay Kitzbühel · SF

Predicted probability

Alexander Bublik

Kazakhstan

62.96%

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Argentina

37.04%

Average Odds

1.55 / 2.43

Market probability

61.06% / 38.94%

Why This Prediction?

Alexander Bublik is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1866 vs 1712), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1783 vs 1709) and a better head-to-head record against Tomas Martin Etcheverry (2-0).

Player Comparison

1866.4 Elo 1712.2

1783.0 Elo (surface) 1708.6

252 Wins 133

50 Wins (surface) 77

9 Last 15 form 6

2 Head-to-head wins 0

0.941 Dominance ratio 1.165

11 Rank 31

29.1 Age 27.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alexander Bublik

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–6L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Bublik Tomas Martin Etcheverry

1st Serve In %

62.8%

60.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

80.8%

73.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.7%

52.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.7%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.6%

47.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.84

0.49

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.15

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.7%

68.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.4%

72.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.8%

53.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.6%

27.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.5%

50.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.96

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Bublik Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Break Points Saved %

76.2%

57.7%

Break Points Converted %

42.1%

39.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.4%

64.8%

Break Points Converted %

50.7%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alexander Bublik 2 – 0 Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Clay Kitzbühel · 2026-07-24

SF

Alexander Bublik #11

Tomas Martin Etcheverry #31

6-3 6-4

7 Aces 7

3 Double Faults 1

60 Service Points 63

39 First Serve In 43

32 First Serve Won 30

10 Second Serve Won 9

1 Break Points Saved 4

1 Break Points Faced 6

35 Winners 21

14 Unforced Errors 13

1.6 Average Odds 2.4

Hard Australian Open · 2026-01-19

R32

Alexander Bublik #10

Tomas Martin Etcheverry #62

7-6(4) 7-6(5) 6-4

21 Aces 10

2 Double Faults 1

104 Service Points 112

67 First Serve In 74

60 First Serve Won 56

23 Second Serve Won 24

3 Break Points Saved 3

3 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Turin CH · 2025-05-13

QF

Alexander Bublik #76

Tomas Martin Etcheverry #51

6-2 3-6 7-5

11 Aces 9

6 Double Faults 1

90 Service Points 86

54 First Serve In 57

39 First Serve Won 38

17 Second Serve Won 14

4 Break Points Saved 4

7 Break Points Faced 8