ATP tennis predict — Alexander Bublik vs Jakub Mensik

ATP Hard Beijing · 1. round 04:00

Predicted probability

Alexander Bublik

Kazakhstan

45.36%

Jakub Mensik

Czech Republic

54.64%

Average Odds

2.36 / 1.57

Market probability

39.95% / 60.05%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

2022.7 Elo 2028.8

1939.7 Elo (surface) 1977.4

255 Wins 107

152 Wins (surface) 80

8 Last 15 form 9

1 Head-to-head wins 2

1.306 Dominance ratio 1.043

20 Rank 14

29.3 Age 21.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alexander Bublik

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Jakub Mensik

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–5L · 58.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Bublik Jakub Mensik

1st Serve In %

62.8%

61.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

80.8%

72.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.7%

52.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.7%

21.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.6%

55.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.84

0.51

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.7%

57.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.4%

74.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.8%

54.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.6%

32.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.5%

48.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.96

0.67

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Bublik Jakub Mensik

Break Points Saved %

76.2%

60.9%

Break Points Converted %

42.1%

44.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.4%

66.7%

Break Points Converted %

50.7%

54.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alexander Bublik 1 – 2 Jakub Mensik

Clay Madrid Masters · 2025-04-23

R16

Jakub Mensik #23

Alexander Bublik #75

6-3 6-2

10 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 1

49 Service Points 49

31 First Serve In 30

24 First Serve Won 20

14 Second Serve Won 7

3 Break Points Saved 1

3 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Rotterdam · 2025-02-03

R32

Jakub Mensik #47

Alexander Bublik #49

6-4 6-4

10 Aces 5

3 Double Faults 2

50 Service Points 58

33 First Serve In 32

29 First Serve Won 27

10 Second Serve Won 10

0 Break Points Saved 4

1 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Grass Wimbledon · 2024-07-01

R128

Alexander Bublik #23

Jakub Mensik #78

4-6 6-7(2) 6-4 6-4 6-2

32 Aces 14

6 Double Faults 8

140 Service Points 188

95 First Serve In 108

79 First Serve Won 77

22 Second Serve Won 38

5 Break Points Saved 18

7 Break Points Faced 23

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Alexander Bublik vs Jakub Mensik — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Alexander Bublik — Last 10

Jakub Mensik — Last 10