ATP tennis predict — Alexander Bublik vs Facundo Diaz Acosta

ATP Clay Kitzbühel · R16

Predicted probability

Alexander Bublik

Kazakhstan

45.86%

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Argentina

54.14%

Average Odds

1.44 / 2.77

Market probability

65.80% / 34.20%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1851.5 Elo 1766.1

1741.4 Elo (surface) 1795.0

250 Wins 33

48 Wins (surface) 24

8 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.850 Dominance ratio 1.030

11 Rank 108

29.1 Age 25.6

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alexander Bublik

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–2L · 84.6%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–2L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

30 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Bublik Facundo Diaz Acosta

1st Serve In %

62.8%

65.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

80.8%

69.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.7%

49.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.7%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.6%

49.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.84

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.7%

69.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.4%

70.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.8%

62.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.6%

40.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.5%

53.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.96

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.11

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Bublik Facundo Diaz Acosta

Break Points Saved %

76.2%

57.1%

Break Points Converted %

42.1%

48.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.4%

76.6%

Break Points Converted %

50.7%

48.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alexander Bublik 0 – 0 Facundo Diaz Acosta

Clay Kitzbühel · 2026-07-22

R16

Alexander Bublik #11

Facundo Diaz Acosta #108

6-3 7-5

8 Aces 1

1 Double Faults 0

63 Service Points 60

44 First Serve In 39

36 First Serve Won 27

11 Second Serve Won 13

1 Break Points Saved 5

1 Break Points Faced 7

26 Winners 11

31 Unforced Errors 15

1.4 Average Odds 2.8

Alexander Bublik vs Facundo Diaz Acosta — Prediction