ATP tennis predict — Alexander Bublik vs Alex Molcan

ATP Clay Kitzbühel · QF

Predicted probability

Alexander Bublik

Kazakhstan

47.16%

Alex Molcan

Slovakia

52.84%

Average Odds

1.59 / 2.33

Market probability

59.44% / 40.56%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1858.7 Elo 1793.6

1761.7 Elo (surface) 1837.2

251 Wins 90

49 Wins (surface) 51

9 Last 15 form 12

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.859 Dominance ratio 1.091

11 Rank 81

29.1 Age 28.6

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alexander Bublik

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Alex Molcan

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Bublik Alex Molcan

1st Serve In %

62.8%

62.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

80.8%

68.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.7%

52.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.7%

30.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.6%

52.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.84

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.7%

60.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.4%

69.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.8%

48.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.6%

34.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.5%

58.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.96

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Bublik Alex Molcan

Break Points Saved %

76.2%

60.3%

Break Points Converted %

42.1%

38.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.4%

64.5%

Break Points Converted %

50.7%

52.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alexander Bublik 0 – 1 Alex Molcan

Clay Kitzbühel · 2026-07-23

QF

Alexander Bublik #11

Alex Molcan #81

6-3 6-2

13 Aces 1

7 Double Faults 4

63 Service Points 48

39 First Serve In 27

30 First Serve Won 19

10 Second Serve Won 5

7 Break Points Saved 4

8 Break Points Faced 8

28 Winners 9

28 Unforced Errors 23

1.6 Average Odds 2.3

Clay Munich · 2026-04-13

R32

Alex Molcan #166

Alexander Bublik #11

6-4 6-2

6 Aces 6

1 Double Faults 3

51 Service Points 52

31 First Serve In 35

23 First Serve Won 19

12 Second Serve Won 7

1 Break Points Saved 5

2 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Alexander Bublik vs Alex Molcan — Prediction