ATP tennis predict — Alexander Bublik vs Adrian Mannarino

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 2. round 22:00

Predicted probability

Alexander Bublik

Kazakhstan

76.09%

Adrian Mannarino

France

23.91%

Average Odds

1.28 / 3.74

Market probability

74.50% / 25.50%

Why This Prediction?

Alexander Bublik is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1866 vs 1686), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1740 vs 1717) and a stronger serve (69.8% vs 63.2% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1865.9 Elo 1685.5

1740.2 Elo (surface) 1717.0

254 Wins 413

151 Wins (surface) 281

9 Last 15 form 7

1 Head-to-head wins 1

1.088 Dominance ratio 0.991

16 Rank 67

29.2 Age 38.2

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alexander Bublik

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Adrian Mannarino

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Bublik Adrian Mannarino

1st Serve In %

62.8%

54.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

80.8%

70.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.7%

47.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.7%

25.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.6%

52.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.84

0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.7%

56.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.4%

72.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.8%

49.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.6%

33.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.5%

53.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.96

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Bublik Adrian Mannarino

Break Points Saved %

76.2%

53.3%

Break Points Converted %

42.1%

35.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.4%

59.6%

Break Points Converted %

50.7%

47.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alexander Bublik 1 – 1 Adrian Mannarino

Hard US Open · 2026-09-03

2. round

Alexander Bublik #16

Adrian Mannarino #67

6-3 6-1 6-1

16 Aces 1

3 Double Faults 3

62 Service Points 64

45 First Serve In 34

41 First Serve Won 18

9 Second Serve Won 14

1 Break Points Saved 8

1 Break Points Faced 14

28 Winners 6

26 Unforced Errors 29

1.3 Average Odds 3.7

Hard Beijing · 2025-09-25

R32

Adrian Mannarino #60

Alexander Bublik #16

6-3 6-2

8 Aces 3

0 Double Faults 3

45 Service Points 44

30 First Serve In 24

25 First Serve Won 16

10 Second Serve Won 7

3 Break Points Saved 1

3 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Doha · 2020-01-06

R32

Alexander Bublik #55

Adrian Mannarino #43

6-3 6-4

10 Aces 1

6 Double Faults 2

62 Service Points 48

41 First Serve In 28

31 First Serve Won 17

10 Second Serve Won 12

3 Break Points Saved 2

4 Break Points Faced 5