ATP tennis predict — Alexander Blockx vs Luciano Darderi

ATP Clay Estoril · SF

Predicted probability

Alexander Blockx

Belgium

38.81%

Luciano Darderi

Italy

61.19%

Average Odds

2.45 / 1.54

Market probability

38.60% / 61.40%

Why This Prediction?

Luciano Darderi is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1853 vs 1720), a higher Elo rating (1786 vs 1703) and more wins on clay courts (116 vs 8).

Player Comparison

1702.7 Elo 1786.5

1720.0 Elo (surface) 1853.4

38 Wins 90

16 Wins (surface) 70

10 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.099 Dominance ratio 0.809

38 Rank 21

21.3 Age 24.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alexander Blockx

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Luciano Darderi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–4L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Blockx Luciano Darderi

1st Serve In %

56.0%

58.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.9%

71.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.3%

48.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.9%

33.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.6%

54.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.65

0.77

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.8%

52.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.9%

71.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.1%

52.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.8%

36.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.0%

57.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.10

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexander Blockx Luciano Darderi

Break Points Saved %

59.4%

68.8%

Break Points Converted %

38.8%

40.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

61.0%

71.2%

Break Points Converted %

35.2%

48.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alexander Blockx 0 – 0 Luciano Darderi

Clay Estoril · 2026-07-25

SF

Alexander Blockx #38

Luciano Darderi #21

5-7 7-6 7-6

8 Aces 5

6 Double Faults 4

122 Service Points 106

72 First Serve In 52

53 First Serve Won 33

22 Second Serve Won 31

8 Break Points Saved 3

14 Break Points Faced 8

48 Winners 31

55 Unforced Errors 52

2.5 Average Odds 1.5

Alexander Blockx vs Luciano Darderi — Prediction