ATP tennis predict — Alex Molcan vs Sebastian Ofner

ATP Clay Kitzbühel · 1. round

Predicted probability

Alex Molcan

Slovakia

66.92%

Sebastian Ofner

Austria

33.08%

Average Odds

1.67 / 2.18

Market probability

56.62% / 43.38%

Why This Prediction?

Alex Molcan is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1815 vs 1695), a higher Elo rating (1774 vs 1690) and a stronger return game (43.8% vs 36.8% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1774.2 Elo 1690.0

1815.4 Elo (surface) 1694.7

88 Wins 104

49 Wins (surface) 51

11 Last 15 form 6

1 Head-to-head wins 1

1.125 Dominance ratio 0.949

81 Rank 124

28.6 Age 30.2

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alex Molcan

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Sebastian Ofner

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–6L · 14.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Molcan Sebastian Ofner

1st Serve In %

62.7%

58.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.5%

72.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.8%

45.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.9%

25.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.9%

50.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.8%

56.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.6%

69.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.1%

46.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.9%

31.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.8%

40.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Molcan Sebastian Ofner

Break Points Saved %

60.3%

62.3%

Break Points Converted %

38.7%

40.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.5%

55.4%

Break Points Converted %

52.5%

34.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alex Molcan 1 – 1 Sebastian Ofner

Clay Kitzbühel · 2026-07-21

1. round

Alex Molcan #81

Sebastian Ofner #124

6-4 6-4

2 Aces 3

0 Double Faults 2

51 Service Points 57

32 First Serve In 38

24 First Serve Won 28

13 Second Serve Won 8

0 Break Points Saved 3

1 Break Points Faced 6

4 Winners 20

16 Unforced Errors 37

1.7 Average Odds 2.2

Clay Kitzbuhel · 2023-07-31

R16

Alex Molcan #120

Sebastian Ofner #61

4-6 7-5 7-6(5)

6 Aces 10

4 Double Faults 5

128 Service Points 111

84 First Serve In 45

61 First Serve Won 37

14 Second Serve Won 29

9 Break Points Saved 3

14 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Rome 1 CH · 2021-04-19

R32

Sebastian Ofner #154

Alex Molcan #275

6-7(7) 6-0 6-3

10 Aces 6

5 Double Faults 1

91 Service Points 84

51 First Serve In 46

39 First Serve Won 25

23 Second Serve Won 22

4 Break Points Saved 7

5 Break Points Faced 12