ATP tennis predict — Alex Molcan vs Karen Khachanov

ATP Hard Beijing · R16 07:00

Predicted probability

Alex Molcan

Slovakia

29.16%

Karen Khachanov

Russia

70.84%

Average Odds

4.08 / 1.23

Market probability

23.16% / 76.84%

Why This Prediction?

Karen Khachanov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1932 vs 1714), a higher Elo rating (1993 vs 1889) and more wins on hard courts (223 vs 33).

Player Comparison

1889.4 Elo 1992.7

1714.5 Elo (surface) 1932.3

92 Wins 348

33 Wins (surface) 223

10 Last 15 form 8

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.047 Dominance ratio 0.970

96 Rank 26

28.8 Age 30.4

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alex Molcan

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Karen Khachanov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–6L · 40.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Molcan Karen Khachanov

1st Serve In %

61.9%

58.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.8%

71.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.4%

46.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.1%

22.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

48.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.54

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.8%

54.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.6%

72.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.1%

53.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.9%

29.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.8%

50.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.59

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Molcan Karen Khachanov

Break Points Saved %

55.1%

61.1%

Break Points Converted %

36.3%

45.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.5%

68.1%

Break Points Converted %

52.5%

33.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alex Molcan 1 – 0 Karen Khachanov

Clay Lyon · 2022-05-16

R16

Alex Molcan #47

Karen Khachanov #24

6-2 7-6(4)

5 Aces 6

2 Double Faults 1

62 Service Points 60

35 First Serve In 42

26 First Serve Won 28

16 Second Serve Won 7

3 Break Points Saved 2

4 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Alex Molcan vs Karen Khachanov — Prediction