ATP tennis predict — Alex Molcan vs Benjamin Bonzi

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 1. round 20:30

Predicted probability

Alex Molcan

Slovakia

42.11%

Benjamin Bonzi

France

57.89%

Average Odds

2.77 / 1.44

Market probability

34.20% / 65.80%

Why This Prediction?

Benjamin Bonzi is the favorite because he has more wins on hard courts (141 vs 45), more career match wins (199 vs 145) and a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1596 vs 1589).

Player Comparison

1768.2 Elo 1799.0

1588.7 Elo (surface) 1595.9

90 Wins 103

31 Wins (surface) 63

11 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.034 Dominance ratio 0.989

86 Rank 97

28.8 Age 30.2

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alex Molcan

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Benjamin Bonzi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Molcan Benjamin Bonzi

1st Serve In %

62.7%

57.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.5%

72.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.8%

48.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.9%

24.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.9%

53.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.8%

63.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.6%

71.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.1%

49.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.9%

28.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.8%

49.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Molcan Benjamin Bonzi

Break Points Saved %

60.3%

55.4%

Break Points Converted %

38.7%

38.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.5%

63.3%

Break Points Converted %

52.5%

37.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alex Molcan 0 – 0 Benjamin Bonzi

Hard US Open · 2026-09-02

1. round

Benjamin Bonzi #97

Alex Molcan #86

6-4 3-6 6-3 6-2

3 Aces 14

3 Double Faults 3

114 Service Points 86

65 First Serve In 50

40 First Serve Won 44

27 Second Serve Won 19

6 Break Points Saved 2

12 Break Points Faced 5

20 Winners 38

31 Unforced Errors 29

1.4 Average Odds 2.8

Alex Molcan vs Benjamin Bonzi — Prediction