ATP tennis predict — Alex Michelsen vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Grand Slam Hard US Open · R16 20:30

Predicted probability

Alex Michelsen

USA

74.05%

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Argentina

25.95%

Average Odds

1.33 / 3.34

Market probability

71.52% / 28.48%

Why This Prediction?

Alex Michelsen is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1878 vs 1721), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1851 vs 1697) and a stronger return game (37.5% vs 36.7% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1878.0 Elo 1720.6

1850.9 Elo (surface) 1697.3

103 Wins 136

75 Wins (surface) 54

10 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.086 Dominance ratio 1.133

46 Rank 32

22.0 Age 27.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alex Michelsen

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–6L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Michelsen Tomas Martin Etcheverry

1st Serve In %

58.7%

60.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.0%

73.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.7%

52.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.7%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.3%

47.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.54

0.49

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34

0.15

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.4%

68.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.6%

72.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.4%

53.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.7%

27.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.8%

50.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Michelsen Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Break Points Saved %

67.1%

57.7%

Break Points Converted %

43.4%

39.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.0%

64.8%

Break Points Converted %

56.9%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alex Michelsen 0 – 0 Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Hard US Open · 2026-09-06

R16

Alex Michelsen #46

Tomas Martin Etcheverry #32

7-6 6-4 6-4

12 Aces 6

7 Double Faults 0

102 Service Points 98

54 First Serve In 49

44 First Serve Won 41

28 Second Serve Won 24

4 Break Points Saved 1

5 Break Points Faced 4

44 Winners 23

31 Unforced Errors 22

1.3 Average Odds 3.3

Alex Michelsen vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry — Prediction