ATP tennis predict — Alex Michelsen vs Mark Lajal

Challenger Hard Bloomfield Hills challenger · QF

Predicted probability

Alex Michelsen

USA

64.97%

Mark Lajal

Estonia

35.03%

Average Odds

1.31 / 3.28

Market probability

71.46% / 28.54%

Why This Prediction?

Alex Michelsen is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1786 vs 1706), a higher Elo rating (1795 vs 1691) and a stronger return game (37.8% vs 35.6% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1795.2 Elo 1691.3

1786.5 Elo (surface) 1706.4

51 Wins (Challenger) 129

36 Wins (surface) 115

10 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.006 Dominance ratio 1.230

44 Rank 150

21.9 Age 23.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alex Michelsen

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Mark Lajal

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–3L · 76.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

37 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Michelsen Mark Lajal

1st Serve In %

58.7%

61.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.0%

70.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.7%

54.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.7%

25.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.3%

53.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.54

0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.4%

58.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.6%

61.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.4%

44.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.7%

27.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.8%

57.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.43

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Michelsen Mark Lajal

Break Points Saved %

67.1%

62.7%

Break Points Converted %

43.4%

41.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.0%

55.4%

Break Points Converted %

56.9%

35.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alex Michelsen 0 – 0 Mark Lajal

Hard Bloomfield Hills challenger · 2026-07-25

QF

Alex Michelsen #44

Mark Lajal #150

6-3 6-4

6 Aces 5

1 Double Faults 8

48 Service Points 69

32 First Serve In 38

27 First Serve Won 29

14 Second Serve Won 11

2 Break Points Saved 3

2 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.3

Alex Michelsen vs Mark Lajal — Prediction