ATP tennis predict — Alex Michelsen vs Mackenzie Mcdonald

ATP Hard Washington · 1. round

Predicted probability

Alex Michelsen

USA

78.43%

Mackenzie Mcdonald

USA

21.57%

Average Odds

1.28 / 3.63

Market probability

73.93% / 26.07%

Why This Prediction?

Alex Michelsen is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1830 vs 1597), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1819 vs 1605) and a better head-to-head record against Mackenzie Mcdonald (2-0).

Player Comparison

1829.7 Elo 1597.2

1819.4 Elo (surface) 1605.3

95 Wins 180

67 Wins (surface) 128

8 Last 15 form 8

2 Head-to-head wins 0

0.985 Dominance ratio 1.061

40 Rank 145

21.9 Age 31.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alex Michelsen

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Mackenzie Mcdonald

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Michelsen Mackenzie Mcdonald

1st Serve In %

58.7%

63.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.0%

66.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.7%

56.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.7%

28.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.3%

47.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.54

0.57

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.4%

64.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.6%

65.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.4%

51.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.7%

32.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.8%

50.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Michelsen Mackenzie Mcdonald

Break Points Saved %

67.1%

60.0%

Break Points Converted %

43.4%

35.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.0%

54.8%

Break Points Converted %

56.9%

42.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alex Michelsen 2 – 0 Mackenzie Mcdonald

Hard Washington · 2026-07-28

1. round

Alex Michelsen #40

Mackenzie Mcdonald #145

6-4 7-5

9 Aces 5

2 Double Faults 4

69 Service Points 65

42 First Serve In 34

30 First Serve Won 22

14 Second Serve Won 14

8 Break Points Saved 6

10 Break Points Faced 10

28 Winners 17

29 Unforced Errors 28

1.3 Average Odds 3.6

Hard Cincinnati Masters · 2024-08-12

Q2

Alex Michelsen #57

Mackenzie Mcdonald #119

6-3 6-2

4 Aces 3

0 Double Faults 0

55 Service Points 49

41 First Serve In 32

33 First Serve Won 19

6 Second Serve Won 9

0 Break Points Saved 4

0 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Grass Newport · 2023-07-17

QF

Alex Michelsen #190

Mackenzie Mcdonald #59

6-3 6-3

3 Aces 2

0 Double Faults 2

49 Service Points 56

38 First Serve In 35

31 First Serve Won 17

4 Second Serve Won 11

2 Break Points Saved 8

3 Break Points Faced 12