ATP tennis predict — Alex Michelsen vs Lloyd Harris

Challenger Hard Bloomfield Hills challenger · R16

Predicted probability

Alex Michelsen

USA

71.24%

Lloyd Harris

RSA

28.76%

Average Odds

1.27 / 3.51

Market probability

73.43% / 26.57%

Why This Prediction?

Alex Michelsen is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1787 vs 1641), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1775 vs 1683) and the advantage of playing in his home country.

Player Comparison

1787.0 Elo 1640.7

1774.6 Elo (surface) 1683.5

50 Wins (Challenger) 137

35 Wins (surface) 108

10 Last 15 form 12

0 Head-to-head wins 2

0.981 Dominance ratio 1.082

44 Rank 186

21.9 Age 29.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alex Michelsen

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Lloyd Harris

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 13W–3L · 81.2%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Michelsen Lloyd Harris

1st Serve In %

58.7%

59.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.0%

74.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.7%

57.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.7%

29.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.3%

53.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.54

0.83

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34

0.10

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.4%

65.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.6%

71.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.4%

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.7%

24.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.8%

51.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.10

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Michelsen Lloyd Harris

Break Points Saved %

67.1%

53.3%

Break Points Converted %

43.4%

43.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.0%

64.4%

Break Points Converted %

56.9%

35.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alex Michelsen 0 – 2 Lloyd Harris

Hard Bloomfield Hills challenger · 2026-07-23

R16

Alex Michelsen #44

Lloyd Harris #186

6-3 6-3

2 Aces 0

2 Double Faults 2

47 Service Points 56

24 First Serve In 32

20 First Serve Won 18

15 Second Serve Won 10

0 Break Points Saved 4

1 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.5

Grass Wimbledon · 2024-07-01

R128

Lloyd Harris #118

Alex Michelsen #55

3-6 4-6 7-6(5) 6-2 7-6(9)

34 Aces 9

6 Double Faults 1

151 Service Points 175

93 First Serve In 131

81 First Serve Won 94

24 Second Serve Won 22

5 Break Points Saved 11

9 Break Points Faced 15

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Grass Mallorca · 2023-06-26

Q2

Lloyd Harris #298

Alex Michelsen #250

6-7(1) 6-4 6-1

19 Aces 6

3 Double Faults 1

103 Service Points 89

60 First Serve In 60

50 First Serve Won 44

21 Second Serve Won 12

5 Break Points Saved 6

5 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Alex Michelsen vs Lloyd Harris — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Alex Michelsen — Last 10

Lloyd Harris — Last 10