ATP tennis predict — Alex Michelsen vs Jesper De Jong

ATP Hard Cincinnati · 1. round 20:00

Predicted probability

Alex Michelsen

USA

77.88%

Jesper De Jong

Netherlands

22.12%

Average Odds

1.20 / 4.58

Market probability

79.24% / 20.76%

Why This Prediction?

Alex Michelsen is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1841 vs 1691), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1817 vs 1634) and the advantage of playing in his home country.

Player Comparison

1840.9 Elo 1691.1

1817.2 Elo (surface) 1633.9

99 Wins 65

71 Wins (surface) 27

9 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.994 Dominance ratio 1.104

42 Rank 105

22.0 Age 26.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alex Michelsen

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Jesper De Jong

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Michelsen Jesper De Jong

1st Serve In %

58.7%

59.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.0%

75.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.7%

46.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.7%

31.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.3%

52.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.54

0.62

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34

0.44

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.4%

58.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.6%

75.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.4%

50.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.7%

39.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.8%

55.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.59

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Michelsen Jesper De Jong

Break Points Saved %

67.1%

59.7%

Break Points Converted %

43.4%

35.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.0%

64.7%

Break Points Converted %

56.9%

45.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alex Michelsen 0 – 0 Jesper De Jong

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-14

1. round

Alex Michelsen #42

Jesper De Jong #105

6-4 6-4

7 Aces 3

1 Double Faults 4

57 Service Points 60

36 First Serve In 29

30 First Serve Won 23

12 Second Serve Won 12

2 Break Points Saved 2

2 Break Points Faced 4

17 Winners 15

18 Unforced Errors 31

1.2 Average Odds 4.6

Alex Michelsen vs Jesper De Jong — Prediction