ATP tennis predict — Alex Michelsen vs Jan Lennard Struff

ATP Hard Montreal · 1. round

Predicted probability

Alex Michelsen

USA

76.74%

Jan Lennard Struff

Germany

23.26%

Average Odds

1.34 / 3.27

Market probability

70.93% / 29.07%

Why This Prediction?

Alex Michelsen is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1824 vs 1662), a higher Elo rating (1833 vs 1718) and a stronger return game (37.5% vs 35.8% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1833.1 Elo 1718.0

1823.8 Elo (surface) 1662.2

97 Wins 328

69 Wins (surface) 174

8 Last 15 form 9

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.970 Dominance ratio 1.122

40 Rank 42

21.9 Age 36.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alex Michelsen

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Jan Lennard Struff

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–6L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Michelsen Jan Lennard Struff

1st Serve In %

58.7%

57.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.0%

76.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.7%

45.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.7%

24.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.3%

49.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.54

0.79

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.4%

58.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.6%

73.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.4%

53.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.7%

26.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.8%

53.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.58

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Michelsen Jan Lennard Struff

Break Points Saved %

67.1%

56.3%

Break Points Converted %

43.4%

47.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.0%

56.4%

Break Points Converted %

56.9%

37.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alex Michelsen 1 – 0 Jan Lennard Struff

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-04

1. round

Alex Michelsen #42

Jan Lennard Struff #41

6-1 3-6 6-1

4 Aces 6

3 Double Faults 1

68 Service Points 61

43 First Serve In 35

34 First Serve Won 23

14 Second Serve Won 12

0 Break Points Saved 2

1 Break Points Faced 6

16 Winners 19

18 Unforced Errors 30

1.3 Average Odds 3.3

Clay Madrid Masters · 2026-04-22

R64

Alex Michelsen #37

Jan Lennard Struff #81

6-2 6-1

2 Aces 4

2 Double Faults 1

40 Service Points 56

28 First Serve In 32

26 First Serve Won 17

6 Second Serve Won 11

0 Break Points Saved 7

0 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Alex Michelsen vs Jan Lennard Struff — Prediction