ATP tennis predict — Alex Michelsen vs Jacob Fearnley

Challenger Hard Bloomfield Hills challenger · F

Predicted probability

Alex Michelsen

USA

53.96%

Jacob Fearnley

Great Britain

46.04%

Average Odds

1.45 / 2.60

Market probability

64.20% / 35.80%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1813.9 Elo 1870.8

1809.6 Elo (surface) 1671.3

53 Wins (Challenger) 55

38 Wins (surface) 38

12 Last 15 form 13

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.058 Dominance ratio 1.135

44 Rank 121

21.9 Age 25.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alex Michelsen

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Jacob Fearnley

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–2L · 81.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Michelsen Jacob Fearnley

1st Serve In %

58.7%

59.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.0%

72.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.7%

48.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.7%

28.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.3%

55.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.54

0.53

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34

0.43

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.4%

56.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.6%

73.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.4%

49.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.7%

31.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.8%

53.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.42

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Michelsen Jacob Fearnley

Break Points Saved %

67.1%

62.4%

Break Points Converted %

43.4%

42.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.0%

47.5%

Break Points Converted %

56.9%

43.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alex Michelsen 0 – 1 Jacob Fearnley

Hard Bloomfield Hills challenger · 2026-07-26

F

Alex Michelsen #32

Jacob Fearnley #234

7-6 6-3

10 Aces 2

3 Double Faults 5

72 Service Points 59

40 First Serve In 32

30 First Serve Won 23

16 Second Serve Won 11

2 Break Points Saved 1

5 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.6

Grass Wimbledon · 2026-06-30

1. round

Jacob Fearnley #159

Alex Michelsen #46

3-6 4-6 6-2 6-3 6-2

12 Aces 9

9 Double Faults 8

146 Service Points 149

92 First Serve In 84

64 First Serve Won 60

22 Second Serve Won 34

7 Break Points Saved 4

13 Break Points Faced 7

35 Winners 48

46 Unforced Errors 52

2.2 Average Odds 1.7

Alex Michelsen vs Jacob Fearnley — Prediction