ATP tennis predict — Alex Michelsen vs Francisco Cerundolo

ATP Hard Montreal · 2. round 21:30

Predicted probability

Alex Michelsen

USA

65.37%

Francisco Cerundolo

Argentina

34.63%

Average Odds

1.56 / 2.41

Market probability

60.71% / 39.29%

Why This Prediction?

Alex Michelsen is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1833 vs 1758), more wins on hard courts (39 vs 3) and a stronger serve (63.8% vs 59.6% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1842.3 Elo 1891.4

1832.7 Elo (surface) 1758.2

98 Wins 187

70 Wins (surface) 65

8 Last 15 form 10

1 Head-to-head wins 1

1.028 Dominance ratio 0.928

42 Rank 23

21.9 Age 28.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alex Michelsen

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Francisco Cerundolo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Michelsen Francisco Cerundolo

1st Serve In %

58.7%

53.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.0%

70.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.7%

48.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.7%

25.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.3%

51.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.54

0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.4%

69.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.6%

67.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.4%

54.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.7%

32.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.8%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.15

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Michelsen Francisco Cerundolo

Break Points Saved %

67.1%

65.2%

Break Points Converted %

43.4%

34.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.0%

66.7%

Break Points Converted %

56.9%

47.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alex Michelsen 1 – 1 Francisco Cerundolo

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-05

2. round

Alex Michelsen #42

Francisco Cerundolo #23

6-3 6-4

3 Aces 6

3 Double Faults 1

69 Service Points 54

36 First Serve In 31

24 First Serve Won 24

23 Second Serve Won 9

9 Break Points Saved 4

9 Break Points Faced 6

0 Winners 0

0 Unforced Errors 0

1.6 Average Odds 2.4

Hard Vienna · 2025-10-20

R32

Francisco Cerundolo #21

Alex Michelsen #34

6-3 6-1

0 Aces 2

0 Double Faults 1

50 Service Points 51

30 First Serve In 33

24 First Serve Won 18

11 Second Serve Won 7

3 Break Points Saved 2

3 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Grass Halle · 2025-06-16

R32

Alex Michelsen #33

Francisco Cerundolo #18

2-6 7-5 6-4

3 Aces 6

1 Double Faults 1

82 Service Points 96

58 First Serve In 57

44 First Serve Won 42

11 Second Serve Won 20

2 Break Points Saved 4

5 Break Points Faced 7