ATP tennis predict — Alex Michelsen vs Federico Cina

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 1. round 23:00

Predicted probability

Alex Michelsen

USA

59.05%

Federico Cina

Italy

40.95%

Average Odds

1.25 / 3.96

Market probability

76.01% / 23.99%

Why This Prediction?

Alex Michelsen is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1839 vs 1705), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1812 vs 1689) and more wins on hard courts (72 vs 6).

Player Comparison

1838.5 Elo 1705.3

1811.5 Elo (surface) 1689.1

100 Wins 13

72 Wins (surface) 6

9 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.088 Dominance ratio 1.094

45 Rank 181

22.0 Age 19.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alex Michelsen

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Federico Cina

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–7L · 53.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Michelsen Federico Cina

1st Serve In %

58.7%

57.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.0%

73.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.7%

47.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.7%

26.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.3%

53.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.54

0.58

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.4%

56.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.6%

66.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.4%

50.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.7%

33.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.8%

47.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.36

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alex Michelsen Federico Cina

Break Points Saved %

67.1%

52.2%

Break Points Converted %

43.4%

39.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.0%

58.5%

Break Points Converted %

56.9%

44.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alex Michelsen 0 – 0 Federico Cina

Hard US Open · 2026-08-31

1. round

Alex Michelsen #46

Federico Cina #181

6-4 6-1 6-0

6 Aces 2

8 Double Faults 1

89 Service Points 84

48 First Serve In 60

39 First Serve Won 34

20 Second Serve Won 7

6 Break Points Saved 9

6 Break Points Faced 15

30 Winners 17

21 Unforced Errors 33

1.2 Average Odds 4.0

Alex Michelsen vs Federico Cina — Prediction